Euroleague Playoffs. Game 2 Previews and Predictions

Nando De Colo against Monia

Power Rating

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CSKA Moscow

CSKA – Khimki

Pick:

Khimki +10,5 @ 1.92 7/10

BC Khimki
CSKA will miss N.De Colo for 3-4 weeks, K.Hines – is another impotant miss. I think it’s a big blow for CSKA in this series. Actually the only bad match-up for Khimki was against duo De Colo and Rodriguez, when they are together on court. Bartzokas must use low scoring but defensive minded Jenkins-Vyaltsev against them. But now he can use just one of them against spanish NT player.

I think that Khimki can fight for the victory here. It will be hard to win game in Moscow, but there is a good chance finally to get it. A.Gill has played in Game 1 and will play tonight of course. And CSKA will miss quality within the main rotation. I can’t see CSKA as -10,5 handicap favs in such situation. As for me we have about 3 points of value here + trends on our side:

  • CSKA 2-7 ATS at home in last 9 games
  • ¬†Khimki 8-1-1 ATS on the road in last 10 games

 

Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos – Real Madrid

Pick:

Real Madrid +2 @ 1.92

Real Madrid
Sometimes you feel like an idiot, when you expect someone to win and they lose by 25 points. But PAO was perfect in that game. Real has lost 3 road handicaps in a row and cooled off they ATS form. Now we don’t have any trends, that support Real Madrid as a choice. Of course, we can go with opinion and expectactions, but that’s not the right way.

Real needs to improve, but PAO seems to be better team at the moment and in better form. I have looked into archived and found the reason to back Real, but that’s more like searching the reasons to bet:

In Euroleague Playoffs teams, that lost Game by 10+ pts are 5-2 ATS in last 4 seasons

The true is that I’ve expected another Real in Athens and after Game 1. And actually it’s hard to believe in them after such poor game. Of course, today they will be better. But I prefer to stay away from betting on them.

 

Fenerbahce Dogus

Fenerbahce – Baskonia

 

Baskonia

Fenerbahce looks like a clear favorite at least until Granger will be able to play in this series. I expect another win for Fenerbahce and don’t see value on Baskonia side to trust their 12-4 ATS away record.

Olympiacos

Olympiacos – Zalgiris

Pick:

Zalgiris +5.5 @ 1.92 5/10

BC Zalgiris
Zalgiris was better team on Wednesday, depsite they played bad game (just 39% shooting from 2-pts). Many players played below their level (Jankunas, Ulanovas, White, Micic) and can improve today. Market awaits close series here, but seems that lithuanian team is at top conditions right now and Olympiacos is struggling due the injuries right before playoffs. I expect another close game here and would not be surprised if Zalgiris will take commanding lead 2-0.

Trends:

  • Olympiacos 0-5 ATS in last 5 home games
  • Zalgiris 12-4 ATS on the road this season in Euroleague

 

 

 

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