Euroleague Playoffs. Game 3. Monday Picks

Vassilis SpanoulisBookmakers doing a good job during playoff games and I am quite suprised to see so many believers that at this moment of the season we can find value bets. Today I will offer just one pick but it is based mostly on what I saw in first games than on value. I would recommend to avoid big stakes on Euroleague until next season… 

Panathinaikos – CSKA

Despite PAO lost both games in Moscow I liked the way they defended. They played their worst season game in offense in Game 2 but still were around “-11” difference and CSKA was lucky to score 9/15 3-pointers and the end of long possessions. Also Weems was an X-factor in both games but I really doubt about his chances to produce so many offensive action in Athens.

I expect PAO defense to be even harder than it was in Moscow and offensively Panathinaikos should be able to use CSKA weakness at home much better. In away matches CSKA usually fails to defend, while PAO at home always limits opponents offense to lower numbers.

I see PAO winning Game 3 in another low scoring match. Total line already adjusted to game pace and there is not enough value to take under, so I go with PAO victory.

Pick: Panthinaikos to win @ 1.81 4/10 Pinnacle

Olympiacos – Real Madrid

Public believes in Olympiacos today but is there any value in picking them at these odds? I don’t see any value here. Real is MUCH better team this season and play much more balanced game, which was an advantage for Olympiacos last year. I think that bookmaker did a good job when set Real as -3.5 favorite in Greece because there is too much class difference between team to set Oly as a favorite here.

I don’t see value in this match and decided to skip it. The only pick I took here (just to watch 1st quarter with interest) is Olympiacos +0.5 in 1st quarter. Olympiacos with its hot supportes should step to the court with great courage and they can start strong as they often do playing at home. 

Maccabi – Milan

I’ve never supported idea to back Milan and stay with this idea one more time. Milan must win at least one game in Tel Aviv (and they can) but I am sure that there is no value in today line. I would take Maccabi with 1.5-2 points handicap, but also I would pick Milan with +8.5. It means that fair line for me is around 5 points and I am not going to take anything here, despite I expect Maccabi to close series on Wednesday.


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