Euroleague Top-16. January 15 games preview

saric copyAfter two profitable rounds seems that bookmakers did right adjustments to their ratings and today we have 3 games, where I can’t see any possibility to bet at least small bet. 

Efes Pilsen – CSKA

Undefeated CSKA comes to Turkey tonight to continue its winning streak. All players are healthy and showing good form for Russian team. Efes also with full roster and spread market set fair as for me. CSKA is different class team and should get around 4-5 points spread in such game as this.

Total line has moved from 151 to 148.5 and I agree with this move, but I have some doubts about Efes ability to hold CSKA offense under 75 points. Also it worth to note that Krstic starting to show its level and with him Efes might more effective under rim in 2 points shooting + CSKA played many games without Teodosic. With him they are much more dangerous in offense. All these factors together with just 3 points value force me to skip under bet here.

ALBA – Real Madrid

There is huge class difference between teams here, but ALBA already won against Barcelona at home at the start of 2015 and proved that on good day they can beat everyone on their court including NBA Champions, who lost here in October. But also we know that big clubs as Maccabi and CSKA won here easy and ALBA never was in position to fight with them. I think that bookmakers set right pre-match expectations here, which are based on roster strength mainly.

As for the total I don’t see enough value to bet on under here, but at in-play we might get better offer, because both teams can score with high percentages in one of the halves. Right now my expectation are that ALBA will score 71-75 points and Real 77-84.

Maccabi – Barcelona

Barcelona again lost Oleson for 2-3 weeks, while Navarro still out. Barcelona in my eyes has better players and deeper squad, but their recent form and just 1 win in last 6 away games keeps me out of position to take them at fair odds. Maccabi has less quality, but their system works better these days and they are able to deliver a lot of problem to catalonian team, if they will be able to push pace in their favor.

This game is very difficult to predict for total outcome. Maccabi trying to run fast offense, but it will be very hard to do against Barcelona defense. Barcelona on other side knows that they should stop fast paced game and force Maccabi to play 5 on 5, where they are no so good this season.

This game like an open book for me. I know that this story (game) should be very interesting, but I don’t know how it will end.

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