Euroleague Top-16. January 22 picks

daniel hackettWe have 4 games scheduled for tonight and two of them goes in today’s free edition. 

Milan – Fenerbahce Ulker

Ulker lost last week against Olympiacos because allowed greeks to shoot with 80% from 3 points for two and a half quarters. Team is full of good players, but either of them can be called as Euroleague star like S.Rodriguez, S.Weems or M.Teodosic. Their best player (Goudlock) is very good scorer, but he fails to decide close games and this is a problem, which Z.Obradovic can’t decide for second season in row. Ulker wins against lower level teams, but fails to take points against same or higher class teams. 

Milan has exactly the same team structure as Ulker. They are also very deep with 10 players of Euroleague level and they are not weaker than Ulker for sure. I don’t know what happened to them, when they hosted Niznyj Novgorod but that was their worst game I’ve ever seen this season (maybe a New Year break was a reason). Last week in Malaga they showed their real level and returned to playoff race. They have full team available for this match, team is well rested (as well as Ulker) and will do its best to get so needed home win.

When Milan hosted regular season game they were listed as -2 favorite, but lost the game 74:80. But at that moment Ulker was playing very good basketball and Milan was on downtrend. Now Milan in my eyes is on uptrend and Ulker is not playing as well as expected. Away from home turkish team never was good to rely and I can’t see them 3 points favorite in Milan.

Also we have system on our side here. Milan lost 4 games against the spread at home and Ulker is on 4-0 streak.

Pick: Milan +3 @ 1.99 Pinnacle

CSKA – Unicaja

These teams played 3 games this season (one friendly). All games were played at average paced and best defensive effort were shown in Malaga when they ended with 66:66 after 40 minutes. But in that game they missed around 15 points from 3-points line due the bad percentage.

CSKA has S.Weems as questionable for this game, but all others are healthy and that should not a problem for Moscow team. I have some lean on under here, because with normal percentage this game should end with 148-160 points, but pre-match value is too low to bet on it. So my advice here is to wait for in-play and catch under 160+ points or Malaga with 17+ handicap.

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Galatasaray – ALBA

Real Madrid – Panathinaikos

 

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