Euroleague. Top-16. March 5 Picks

samuels samuardoAs I promised yesterday today all picks and previews from paid subscription are given for free. Unfortunately, we have only 3 games tonight and just one of them has value bet. Of course, there are many others positions available to bet, but I take my job seriously and can’t recommend bets, where I see no value. 

EA7 Milano – Olympiacos

Greek team travelled to Italy without Petway, Katsivelis and Agravanis. But it would be mistake to take these missings seriuosly. Except Petway other are just a role players and their absence should have big impact on Olympiacos game. What can affect them – lack of motivation and understimation of opponent, which has just 2 wins in Top-16.

After loss in cup final to Sassari Milan reacted with style… They won in Russia and than destroyed Reggio Emilia 118:68 in Italy. Now they want to continue this run, because despite their low standings they do have all chances to qualify into playoffs, if they win today against Olympiacos. They will host Unicaja at home next week (another must win game for them) and they have games against Efes (away) and Laboral (at home) and it’s pretty clear than if they win will 4 games – playoff spot could be reached easily!

Italian team has quality roster with a lot of experience and talent, but very dependable on its form. Seems that at this moment Milan got their confidence and sporting form back, and they are more than ready to prove their playoff ambitions on court. Olympiacos has longer bench and deeper rotation but overall quality is very similar to Milan – and I really can’t see Olympiacos as different class team here to give them 5 points handicap.

I see 50/50 game here and value is surely on Milan side. I will split my stake between handicap and Milan victory here.

Pick: Milan +3 @ 1.98 Pinnacle
Pick: Milan to win @ 2.37 Pinnacle

Galatasaray – Real Madrid

As you probably already know C.Arroyo officially left Galatasaray this week. But that did not affect lines, because he did not played in last games and team already used to play without him, however level of their games is big question because he was like a floor general for them.. E.Arslan can play well at this position but he don’t have a substitute on the bench and can’t produce points as Arroyo did.

Spanish team doin well these days and it’s very hard to see them losing this game in Istanbul. But bookmakers set them as 10 points away favorites and it is impossible to see value in such spread.

As for the total I think we should expect high scoring game, but again bookies rolled out quite high total and it’s better to wait for in-play offers. The key question for me here – game pace. Galatasaray is not a run-and-gun team normally, but might accept such game if Real will offer it.

Betting advice

A lot here will depend from game pace. If game pace will be low and percentage too high – you can take under at HT. If percentages will be low – than take over. Also Galatasaray may provide surprise in 1st half and if Real handicap will drop to 4-5 points – may be it worth to take it. 

Unicaja – Efes Pilsen

Unicaja will play without K.Vasileadis and C.Suarez today. They continue to fight in Euroleague as their last game in Greece showed, but it’s hard to trust them money, because you never know what are the real priorities for a team.

D.Ivkovic and his team lost to Laboral last week and complicated their situation in group. It’s absolutely clear that this a must win game for them, because next three games in Euroleague will be against CSKA, Olympiacos and Fenerbahce Ulker.

The problem here is that Efes money line has no value and I don’t see any sense in taking them under 2.10 odds. Unicaja was leading against in Istanbul by 15 points at HT, but lost the game. It proves that teams are on the same strenght level and Unicaja has enough talent to uspet turks.

Betting advice

Efes will be very motivated tonight and it’s worth to wait for the moment when to grab them. Normally first minutes of the should give all information about motivation here and if Efes will take game under control from first minutes – take it with 1.65-1.90 odds. If Unicaja will start strong than wait for better odds and bet on Efes Pilsen, which is going to comeback to the game in case of bad start. 

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