Unicaja Malaga – Fenerbahce Ulker
Important game for both teams. Ok, it looks more important for Ulker which is having 0-2 in the standings but we should ignore fact that Unicaja has 4 of next 5 games away from home.
For me Unicaja has quite solid roster capable to win against at home anyone in Euroleague excluding Real. But their problem is lack of team leader like Rodriguez, Navarro, Spanoulis.. As a team they look very promising but it’s hard to win as a team in close matches when somebody should take leadership role. Right now Unicaja is in slightly better shape than Ulkerm, they have deeper rotation but will they be able to score points in the deciding moment? Not sure about this..
I think that bookies did nice job when opened line for this with Ulker being favorite. They know that Ulker will be public bet in this situation but if we are talking about real chances I think that this is 46/54 game with slight Ulker advantage only due the factor that they have McCalleb, Bogdanovic, Preldzic and Bjelica (not in best in last games) who can score points in the end and decide games. Now when line moved to +5 I see small value in Unicaja handicap because I can see them winning this one or losing by few points. However, there is still a risk of losing by 6-7 points. That’s why I am taking with lower stakes.
As for the total I am quite confident that we will see fast paced match with both teams scoring more than 73 points. To be honest I expect Unicaja which is really hot these days to score ~78 points and Ulker with its offense can score up to 90. But more realistic scenario for me 83:79 to either side.