With just 3 rounds left in Top-16 we are starting to see teams which are already eliminated from competition and I usually avoid such games, because they are difficult to read. Today I will concentrate on 2 games where I see good winning chances.
CSKA – Bayern
Bayern has German Cup Final 4 this weekend in Ulm and logically they need to save energy for this competition as well as for deciding Euroleague games in next 2 rounds. On other side we have CSKA in huge offensive form which is looking for big margins to achieve a top spot in group F and and avoid Barcelona in semifinal.
For me this looks like a good opportunity for CSKA to increase their points difference and seems that line doesn’t include this factor. CSKA defense should be able to lock Bayern under 70 points, but Bayern defense is so weak in Euroleague that CSKA has nice chances to finish in 87-97 range, depending on game pace. I expect CSKA to win this one by 20+ points.
Pick: CSKA (-15) @ 1.91 4/10 William Hill
Pick: CSKA over 83.5 @ 1.83 3/10 Sportingbet
Maccabi – Real Madrid
Maccabi offensive game is not looking so fresh and effective as it was at the beginning of 2014 year, but defensively they are still good team which doesn’t allow opponents to score with ease. So far all games between Blatt and Lasso were played at average-to-slow pace and I expect this trend to continue tonight. Real defensive capabilities are well known and they need to show them in such game.
I expect Real to lock Maccabi in 70-75 points range and that should enough for this game to finish under 157 points, because I can’t see Real scoring 85+ points in Tel Aviv.
Pick: Under 156 @ 1.94 4/10 Pinnacle
Z.Erceg (Galatasaray) over 11.5 points @ 1.83 Sportingbet
P.Mensa-Bonsu seems to be out with injury and that means that Z.Erceg will get 29+ minutes playing time. He has good shooting skills and should be able to use his experience against young lithuanian centers, who probably see extended playing time tonight (Zalgiris plays Lithuania Cup Final Four this weekend so different rotation may take place).