Euroleague Top-16 Picks. March 6th

pavlovicI don’t see nothing good for betting in most interesting tonight game between Barcelona and Fenerbahce, but all others games are with picks. However most of them today on players market. 

Olympiacos – Emporio Armani

Both teams have big question mark on using their leaders. V.Spanoulis (Olympiacos) seems to be out and K.Langford (Milan) not trained whole week due the knee injury. J.Moon and M.Begic out of the team too for Olympiacos, but I don’t see big problem here. Moon played just one game for Oly in Euroleague and Shermadini is better player for Olympiacos than Begic. As for the others all are healthy for both teams.

Olympiacos played a good game against Ulker last week but lost one more time. Now they face Milan which is weaker than Oly with Langford. Without Landford I simply can’t see Milal even close to Olympiacos level. And normally when we have situations when better team meets weaker one at home we usually get 7.5-9.5 handicap on home team. Here line opened with -7 but than moved to -6.5. Seems that bookies are happy about getting money on Milan side, because they as well as me expect Olympiacos to remember 51:81 loss in Italy and prove who is better team here.

Also Olympiacos is doing great defense at home (0.84 pts/possession) and Milan is 15th team in Top-16 in away offensive quality with just 0.84 pts/possession. With Langford injury-touched who is scoring 19 pts in average in Top-16 I see huge problems for Milan offense to roll in Greece this evening. Normally Milan should finish in 63-68 points tonight. On other side Olympiacos offensively playing collective basketball and should easily overcome Spanoulis absence. I expect 75+ points from Olympiacos and it means than Oly should win this game by at least 9 points.

One more pick I like here is K.Langford to score under 17.5 points. 1) His scoring average is 19 points, but normally we should get 15.5 pts on him. 2) He is injured and might play less minutes (if any).

Pick: Olympiacos (-6) @ 1.90 4/10 Bet365
Pick: K.Langford under 17.5 @ 1.83 3/10 Sportingbet

Zalgiris – CSKA

This should be an easy one for CSKA. The only question for me here is a game pace, because we have 2 different styles teams and I am not sure what kind of game we will see. Most probably CSKA will accept Zalgiris style and win this by scoring ~85 points and limiting Zalgiris in 66-73 points. Bookies did a good job when they made CSKA double digits favorite here, total is hard to bet before the game.

In the player total market I like Pocius chances to score at least 11 points. He is finally got his rhytm in offense after missing many game at the end or regular season. He easily can score 3-4 layups + hit 1-2 from the distance and add some points from 3 points line. He is getting more shots now than before and Dentmon to be defended well by Pargo & Jackson he is the only Zalgiris weapon on the distance with lazy Teodosic in front of him.

Pick: Pocius over 11.5 @ 1.83 3/10 Sportingbet

Partizan – Bayern Munich

I expect Partizan to give a real fight here. But with B.Bogdanovic being injured I expect to see first competetive game of ex-NBA player Sasha Pavlovic in Euroleague. Looking to his ABA league stats seems that he is getting enought shots when he gets 20+ minutes on the field. I think that very soon we will be getting ~13 points him on this markets. Today expecting him to score around 15 points.

Pick: S.Pavlovic over 10.5 @ 1.83 3/10 Sportingbet

 

 

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