Euroleague Top. March 12 picks

laboral nnDuring last few weeks it’s very hard to final value bets in Euroleague. Lines are very strong and it reminds me Champions League odds in soccer. You always want to bet something, but you can’t find value.. Tonight we have 4 games in the schedule. Let’s see if there any winners there. 

Nizhny Novgorod – Laboral Kutxa Vitoria

Ben Hansbrough is out for Laboral, but they still have 9 players in rotation and his absence should not be a big problem for them. Russians has T.Kinsey listed as game time decision, but preliminary he is expected to play because he returned from USA with state “fully recovered”.

Both teams will look for a win in this match. Laboral might improve their position in group, because Efes will play in Moscow this week and Novgorod still has good chances for playoffs in case they get win today (especially with 7+ points margin). The only difference is that Laboral might accept 1-6 points loss here in case Efes lose tomorrow in Moscow. And for hosts this game is absolutely must win if they want to fight for playoffs.

I liked the way Nizhny Novgorod played in Turkey last week. They were without Kinsey and Parakhovksi, while Fenerbahce played their “A” game in offense to score 92 points from 76 posessions (1.18 pts/possession). Now being at full roster russian team will be even more dangerous in offense and with home crowd support they might get a win here. Line is very well balanced, but my own line here is -3.5 for russian team. This is not enough for normal stake, but I go with system selection here, because Novgorod lost 4 spreads in a row and is understimated today.

Pick: Nizhny Novgorod to win @ 1.98

Galatasaray – Crvena Zvezda

Big moves happens in this game after news about Galatasaray injury problems. They WON against Ulker playing with just 6 players, but this time S.Guler is going to be rested, so only 5 main players expected to play against Crvena Zvezda. But I was not able to find 100% confirmation that Arslan and Pocius will miss this game due the injuries. According to lithuanian newspapers Pocius was expected to play against Ulker, so might appear on court today. Already on Saturday (in less than 48 hours) Galatasaray will play big game against Besiktas in TBL and coach already said that he will use young players tonight, because TBL game is more important for team.

Crvena Zvezda is better and deeper team in case Galatasaray will play with just 5 experienced players. But first we need to see who will play for Galatasaray. In case Arslan and Pocius are set to play some minutes – I would be on Galatasaray spread, which at the evening will drop to +8 points. We should forget than Crvena Zvezda is one of the weakest YOUNG teams in Euroleague and -6 away spread in something from phantasy world in normal circumstances.

This one might ends with 10+ points for Crvena Zvezda or suprise the world again as often happens in Turkey… I hate to bet on such types of games and that would be a big mistake to bet without 100% knowledge about Galatasaray roster.

Barcelona – Maccabi

Both teams experience some problems with form and it’s very hard to trust money them. The only thing I am pretty sure about is that Barcelona will try to win by 3+ points margin at all costs, while Maccabi is absolutely happy with their current standings. Sure Maccabi will try to save h2h advantage, but this will require to fight for a win and it’s not easy to do in Palau Blaugrana, especially when you are on the same level as Barcelona.

The good news for catalans is that Navarro getting better and his playing will be increased after Abrines injury. If Navarro will play his level game – it will be very hard for Maccabi to hold in the game. But who knows what to expect from 35 y.o. veteran?

I decided to stay away from this match.

Paid picks

Real Madrid – ALBA

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