Last week was bad and frustrating, but that’s a part of the business. Euroleague season comes to its end and we have less and less team with motivation. Today I want to take closer look on games in Spain.
Laboral – Fenerbahce
Laboral without D.Bertans until end of the season, Ulker lost Hickman and Zoric is also absent this week.
Things are pretty simple here.
- We go against unbelievable Ulker ATS streak
- I see some value in Laboral odds (less than 4 points, but it exists)
Laboral has nice long roster to compete against Ulker and they already showed this in Turkey. They are fighting for playoff spot with Efes Pilsen and they must win tonight to be there. Bertans is out, but this is not so important miss for them, because they have Adams, San Emeterio, Casseur who can score from 3-pts line and this is the only thing latvian boy learn to do.
Ulker is also motivated here, but -3.5 in Spain is something from phantasy world for me. Normally Ulker should get +2.5 here, but their results force bookies to make a strong move. Public loves Ulker but with all my respect they are not yet a championship calibre team, especially now with Hickman and Zoric being out.
I go with Laboral here because there is minimal value and we should kill than enormous 9-0 ATS Ulker run in away games + they are on 6-0 ATS run in last 6 games.
Pick: Laboral +2 @ 1.97
Barcelona – Real
I was thinking about taking under here in case line would go to 163-164 points. But it has moved to 161 and value has been cut to the lowest point. I decided to skip total bet, because this is a not a playoff character game. Real can lose up to 24 points. Game pace is usually high when these teams plays against each other but playing at Palau Blaugrana we can expect some kind of quality drop, because defense prevails usually there.
As for the outcome I see no value in taking Barcelona at these odds. Real is obviously better team (especially now when Doellman is out), but we have different motivation here and bookies decided to give some points to Barca. I fully agree with this decision.
My advice here is to wait for 2.00+ odds on Barcelona at in-play in 1st half and look for the opportunity to take under in case of high-scoring first half.
Maccabi – Galatasaray
PAO – ALBA
Nizhny Novgorod – Unicaja