So here we are. The last round of Euroleague regular season, after which I will make stats file to know how profitable it was. Today we have many games, but only two of them represents some value before starting whistle.
Montepaschi – Unicaja
Montepaschi in their best season form and best squad available, because D.Hackett is back after missing two games and E.Green showed us last week why he was invited here. Also S.Nelson could be used in rotation and team captain old fox Tomas Ross showing form improvement. Siena won 5 of last 6 games, and they were really close to win 6 of 6, but Olympiacos is unbelievable team!
Unicaja is also with rull roster in Siena. Probably their roster is a bit better and deeper, but the difference between team is that Montepaschi already found their chemistry and roles, while Unicaja is still in search mode. Unicaja don’t have player like Hackett, and is full of role players who can’t hang a leader role in the team in Euroleague games. That’s why I am confident that there is no class difference between teams and this exactly first reason why I see value in Montepaschi tonight.
Another reason is that Montepaschi playing in front of their supporters which are already getting used to Florence hall. Montepaschi must win this game, and they knew about this game importance long time ago when thet started to gain victories. And Unicaja was hoping to decide their qualification Top-16 before, but failed to do achieve this goal. Now they need to win in Siena to qualify, but so far they did not show ability to win when they needed except one game against weak Zeliona Gura.
As for the total both teams are defensive minded and their offense is not so high-skilled to rely on it in such game. My system says that we should see round 157-162 posessions game here which should transform to 132-144 points game. And I fully agree with such estimation because 73-68 looks like very possible score here.
So I am taking two bets here. Siena to win because they should be small favorite here and we get odds around 2 on them and it is value bet. Second one is system bet.
Anadolu Efes – Real Madrid
Efes is good defensive team but they can’t play offensively against good defense. Today they must win to achieve Top-16 stage and they will step to the court with this mind in their heads. They know that their only chance is defense and looking into last Real games I feel that Efes will be able to stop Real offense at least for 1 or 2 quarters.
Real is still missing Carroll and Bouroussis, but greek center can see some minutes today. Real experiencing some offensive problems when coach starts to rotate roster and they are playing without motivation today. In such situation I see good chance for Efes Pilsen to stop Real Madrid in 74-81 points range.
Under 154 points would be my choice in case Real would play with motivation here, but in our situation it is better to go with motivated side and take Madrid under its total.
Pick: Real Madrid under 80.5 @ 1.83 3/10 Sportingbet