Euroleague regular season comes to its finishing line and as always at this moment of the season we have many games with friendly approach. I don’t like such game and usually skip them. Today I have only official bet, which was sent to paid subscribers. But I also have one system bet and one lean, which maybe used during in-play session.
CSKA – Limoges
Member of CSKA youth team died on training this Monday and this game will be in memory of him. Not sure, how this fact will affect CSKA players and their motivation, but if it will have any effect we can expect CSKA to cover the spread. The only problem I see here is CSKA questionable form, which has been seen in their last games against Unics and Unicaja.
Limoges has important and difficult away game against Asvel and should not take this game seriously. Their offense was spectacular in Limoges, but this time I expect to have more difficult evening. CSKA defense is one of the best in Euroleague, but did not showed up in home matches so far. I am quite sure that normally working CSKA defense should stop Limoges under 70 points.
I expect CSKA win by 16-26 points, but there is no value in spread betting. Total looks fine for over bet, but keep in mind that last 2 CSKA games (against Unics and Malaga) were very underish and CSKA has 4 overs in a row at home. And stastically (according to my 4 years database) this match has 70% chance to go under the total.
I would advice to take under 157.5 on half of your regular stake and add another half in HT if first half will be overish.
Real Madrid – Efes Pilsen
Efes covered the spread in 4 away games this season, but this time I expect Real to send message to turks and other world. First Real is much better team, especially on the bench and should benefit from this on the match distance. Normally we should get here 12-13 points spread, but last Real losses to Bilbao and Estudiantes force public to believe. I always was in position that Efes is not so strong team as its results and their loss to Niznyj Novgorod was a proof.
Sure it’s a bit risky to trust money to Real these days, but 4 units is normal risk here. Real at home is different team and win against Efes by 11 easily.
Pick: Real Madrid (-10) @ 1.84 Pinnacle
Valencia – Neptunas
Turow – Milan
Maccabi – Unicaja