Euroleague. Week 3. Friday games analysis and picks

bilan cedevitaYesterday was quite suprising day in Euroleague. Each game where odds were close to pk line have been easy wins for one of the teams. I hope that today we will more drama on courts. 

Bayern – Milan

Very important game for both teams. Bayern will seek to improve their leading position (in terms of Top-16 qualification), while Milan being 0-2 in the table can’t accept losses anymore.

Looking to the line movement, seems that public is on Milan side today. Probably everyone looks how succesful were italian team in Germany last years and there are more known names in Milan roster. Plus we all remember how great Milan was last season in Europe. But it’s better for forget than season as soon as possible. Because this year Milan managed to build deep but losing team. Hard to say why they decided to sign Kleiza, who lost everything in Europe and can’t play anymore at top level. Hackett never was great winner too. He was good scorer in Siena, but did they won something with him? James did not play last season and out of form now, Ragland can’t play on this level.. Moss, Melli – also not ready to hold Euroleague level yet (or anymore, talking about Moss).

Bayern on other side doing right moves on transfer market. Everybody is involved into Pesic playing schemes, everyone knows what and when to do. The only thing Bayern lacks so far – is quality players. They have Savanovic, Djedovic and Bryant but than comes Benzing, Jagla, Schaffartzik and other germans who can’t play on high level every night.

At this moment I see Bayern and Milan on the same level, and 4 points handicap looks absolutely right line here.

Cedevita – CSKA

In last 3 season CSKA won just 4 times by more than 14 points away from home. It is big understimation of european level of basketball and CSKA overstimation in my opinion to set such handicaps in Euroleaugue. Last time when CSKA won by 14+ pts happened two weeks ago in Berlin and really doubt that this will happen again two times in a row. But surely, this is not the only reason why I decided to back home handicap.

Cedevita returns Ukic and Tomas for this game. With them they are complete and balanced team on all positions, but yes.. Tomas is very weak at the moment, but on other side experience is what really matters in Euroleague. Another moment I like here is Cedevita front line with Zubcic and Bilan against Kaun. It will be very difficult for CSKA to set up defense against Cedevita today.

CSKA recovers N.De Colo and Nichols. Both after return after injuries and should not at best conditions, but CSKA coach will give them minutes when CSKA get their lead. At that moments I really doubt about CSKA ability to hold that superb level they had in first two games.

Finally this is away game and I hardly find motivation for CSKA to win by 15+ points here. Cedevita will fight for the difference, that’s for sure. I expect CSKA to around 9-10 pts and 12.5 points handicap is few points too high to skip this betting opportunity.

Milan had a bad game in France last week, but he is offensive leader of Cedevita this year. He usually makes 12-13 2-pt attempts and scores with 60% + adds points from FT. I expect him to score around 15 points today. CSKA has only one true center – A.Kaun and he is not at best form right now. Against other Bilan should dominate under the basket.

Pick: Cedevita +12,5 @ 1.95  Pinnacle

Pick: M.Bilan (Cedevita) over 11.5 pts @ 1.85 Sportingbet

Barcelona – Turow

Barcelona should win this easy. But you never know will they try to decide all in first half, or they will be down by 5-7 in 1st half and win 2nd half by 25. Normally I expect Turow to end in 65-73, while Barcelona has everything to reach 90 points. But often they just stop playing after building a big lead, so it’s better to skip this match.

Unicaja – Limoges

Last week we played ALBA +9 in Malaga because they are better team than Limoges. Now Limoges gets 9 points handicap, but people back this handicap because they think that ALBA and Limoges on the same level. Bookies did their job well here. Better to skip.

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Neptunas – Olympiacos

Laboral – Galatasaray

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