Euroleague Week 3. Thursday games analysis

There are days in Euroleague, when it is better to stay away from betting. One of those days is tonight. Handicap lines set correctly (+- 2 points), while total lines are difficult to predict due the low numbers of games played.

Crvena Zvezda – Valencia

Lucic and Dubljevic seems to be on court for Valencia and this make this line more or less fair. To place a value bet here, you must determine clear favorite but it’s not easy to do because Valencia is stronger side in this matchup but still looking for their game, while Crvena Zvezda already found it and at home will do its best to use this advantage. 

Very hard game to bet on, but I’m closer to Valencia which needs this game slightly more. 

ALBA – Maccabi

S.Smith and A.Tyus back to Maccabi roster and it makes Maccabi roster compete. It’s clear that Maccabi in full strength is better team than ALBA and I full agree with Obradovic, who said that ALBA’s level for now is Limoges and Cedevita. Games against these teams are must win, and against big teams is just a chance to steal points. I think that ALBA can fight for a victory today, but it depends mostly on Maccabi performance. Total is hard to predict yet (not enough data to analyze).

But I like one position on players market. 

B.Randle total is set around 12.5-13 points and for me it is at least 2 points higher than it should be. He doesn’t have 3 point shot and makes usually 7-9 FG attempts per game. With 56% scoring rate it is around 9 points. Also he is not an agressive type of player and not doing many FT attempts. Plus he can collects fould quickly and rotation on his position is wide in Maccabi. Let’s take under here.

Pick: B.Randle (Maccabi) under 12.5 points @ 1.85 Favbet

Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce Ulker

Both teams are with full roster, but for me it’s clear which roster in deeper and better. It’s Ulker. And that fact that bookies put Ulker as favorite here tells a lot about class difference between these teams. Bookmakers know pretty well, how important are those battles between greek and turkish teams, but this time they set away team as favorite for a reason. Ulker has different caliber players and should prove their favorite status. But what I fear, is that at this moment of the season Obradovic team is not playing at the level of top team. The same story was last season, when Ulker failed in most of away games.

I doubt that Ulker can avoid up and downs here, while home side seems to be in perfect form in last few games. Some value is on Ulker side, but without confidence it is better to stay from such games.

Real Madrid – Nyznyj Novgorod

Novgorod without Kinsey and Daniels today. And if Real would be at good conditions it should cover 20 pts handicap with ease. But Real is troubled by different problems these days. Bouroussis, Maciulis injuried, but seems to be fit to play. Lull, Fernandez, Rodriguez still can’t find their level after WC. Add to this hard trip (Madrid-Kazan-Madrid-Tenerife), which can still live in their legs and heads. It’s very hard to trust money to Real these days, and there is no reason to back Novgorod too, because they are very weak team. 

If Real will play at its best level we can see here 25+ points victory, but looking to past results it’s better to stay away from betting on Real. One more reason is upcoming game against Valencia this weekend.

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