Euroleague Week 4. Thursday game analysis & picks

anderson zalgirisRound 4 started with great offensive show in Madrid yesterday, but today we have much more serious games and can expect closer scores and more emotions. Hope that advised bets will bring us some profit. 

Zalgiris – Unics

Zalgiris is the hottest team of Euroleague with 3-0 against the spread record (ATS), but there is too big difference between them and Unics to set pk line in Kaunas.

Unics has better players on all positions. Their defense working well again (85:62 against Sassari with 25 points allowed in 2nd half, and that 81:62 against Nymburk in away match). And Unics looking to improve their table positions.

No important missings for both teams, but Unics is two classes better team than Zalgiris and should be placed as -5 favorite here (as Bayern in Turow).

After two bad games in a row, I expect J.Anderson to show his real level. 13 pts line a little but risky one looking to his stats in euroleague, but I think that after 2-3 games we will be getting 14.5-15.5 points line on him.

Pick: Unics to win @ 1.90

Pick: J.Anderson (Zalgiris) over 13 pts @ 1.85

Turow – Bayern

Bayern in must win situation and last year they proved that there is class difference between them and Polish clubs by winning against Zeliona Gora. Now we have them listed as 5 points favorite against surprising Turow. Normall my line here is -3.5 for Bayern, but we can’t ignore that Turow is playing on neutral ground in Liublin and because of this we are getting -5 from bookies.

Bayern has much better team and should prove this on field. But I don’t see any value bet here.

Maccabi – Cedevita

Maccabi after big loss to Hapoel in Israel will try to back to the winning way tonight, but I don’t expect this to be easy game for hosts.

Cedevita proved last week that they can play much better than in first two rounds. Repesa quickly found right balance in the team and Cedevita again looks like a dangerous team. They are very technical team and might be very dangerous if you don’t play in defense. So far Maccabi defensive skills don’t impress me and I expect Cedevita to use this weakness of Maccabi today. They have Bilan to score from paint, shooters to score from distance and penetrator as Ukic to find the right angles in offense.

Maccabi can score n 80-86 points, but I doubt that their defense can stop Cedevita under 70+ points. Fair line as for me -11.5/154.5 so some value is on Cedevita side. Let’s take it.

Pick: Cedevita +16.5 @ 1.90

Fenerbahce – Barcelona

Honestly speaking I like Barcelona chances to win game. But there are reasons why I don’t want to invest here. The main reason is that bookmakers already included my feeling into the line. I mean that my line here is 1.94-1.94, but we see Barcelona with -2.5 spread. So there is no value in Barcelona at these odds for sure. Second important moment is that Barcelona actually not so motivated here. They are leading the group and can accept loss here. Fenerbahce has big ambitions this year and I am quite sure that they will do their best to send a notice to the Europe. Also they needs win more than Barca because they have two aways games in Munich and Milan, where nothing is granted for them. Also they need to react after humilitating loss to PAO last week.

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