Euroleague Week 5. Friday Picks

logan sassariSorry for delay.. Today I want to let you know my opinion about 3 games in Turkey, France and Italy. 

Efes – Real Madrid

Real Madrid without R.Fernandez today, but that’s not a big problem for them. P.Lasso talking that his team must improve defense, but all coaches want this. Unfortunately, if you don’t have defensive specialists in your team you can forget about defense. Seems that this year Real Madrid will fail to achieve defensive level of last year with so many players, who never were known as good defenders.

Efes still can’t fill Krstic spot with new center. Today they will see different level opponent comparing to last week game when they used their class advantage over Kinsey-weakened Novgorod.

I hardly see chances in this game for Efes, but who knows what game Real will provide this week. They were impressive against Novgorod and Sassari at home, but this is away game and Real must prove huge class difference to cover 7.5 spread. I have no trust to this year Real in such situations and decided to stay away from this game.

Limoges – CSKA

CSKA without Fridzon, Markoishvili, Khriapa, but with Nichols and De Colo they still have 8 top-level player rotation, which should decide this game. Limoges lost Amagou for 5 weeks. Not a big blow in terms of scoring, but roster depth will be shorter today. CSKA has to win this, but spread set too high. I think that correct line should be -7.5 for CSKA, but I will not be suprised if CSKA wins this by 12 in the end.

I like the total here. Limoges has worst Euroleague offense and fails to score with good percentage in French league against good defensive teams. CSKA away from home is less willing to run. They like to control tempo and play from defense in such games. I see Limoges finishing below 68 points today and CSKA has to score in 75-80 points range.

Pick: under 150,5 @ 1.95 6/10 Pinnacle

Sassari – Zalgiris

First of all I am pretty sure that we have wrong odds here. Sassari was a 2 points favorite against full version Efes, but lost that game. Full Efes is stronger than Zalgiris but for some reason we don’t see at least -2.5 on Sassari against their level team… And the reason is pretty simple: Arturas Milaknis. Player who scored 11 of 16 triples in Euroleague (8 of 10 against Efes and Unics). All you need to do win against Zalgiris create defensive sets for Anderson, don’t leave Milaknis alone and score points in offense. Really not much to do and Sassari can do all this.

My line is -2.5 for Sassari here, but value is not enough for normal stake. Luckily, Zalgiris is on 4-0 ATS run and we can take this as system selection.

Pick: Sassari +1 @ 1.99 4/10 Pinnacle

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