No luck yesterday in the end in both my picks, but I am used to this and know that it’s better to lose a good bet, than to win bad one and think that you are doing right things. Tonight I will offer 2 picks from paid subscription and hope both will bring us some profit.
Zalgiris – Real Madrid
Looking to the season stats Real tends to play at high speed against fast teams like Sassari, Novgorod, Tenerife, Joventud and play in average pace against slower teams. Last week Pablo Lasso said that he wants to see better defensive effort from his team and in last two games Real allowed 75 and 65 points. Today Ream will play against Zalgiris, which has difficulties in scoring points with high percentages (just 0.86 pts/poss, if we don’t take walkover over Novgorod at home), but currently has 3rd best defense in Euroleague with 0.82 pts/poss.
I expect average pace game (around 162-166 posessions) and at this pace I expect Zalgiris to score 70-75 points, while Real its powerful offense should be able to finish in 76-85 points range. Still there is small room for 161-162 points, but we have 6-6.5 points value here and it is a must bet for me.
Pick: Under 159 @ 1.92 Pinnacle
T.Kinsey (Novgorod) over 12.5 @ 1.85 William Hill
Very suprised to see such low line for team leader. While he was injured Rochestie took his shots and role of creator, but he returned to the lineup last week and he is very good condition. I expect him to score 6-8 points from 2-pts shots, 6 from 3-points and add 2-3 FT. So 15-15.5 line is looking to be more fair than current one. Russian bookies have him with 14 points and I think he will cover this number too. Don’t forget that Sassari is an uptempo team with quite poor defense.