Lokomotiv – Crvena Zvezda
Here we have two teams with two defensive-formation coaches and I expect this game to be quite low scoring. One of the reason is Lokomotiv offensive problems. During November they just once managed to score over 73 points and the reason of that is russian team doesn’t have many players who can score in double digits in every match.
Kalnietis, Bykov, Williams, Jasaitis, Simon – each can score from 5 to 10 points on any given day, but nobody can score 10+ in every match. Maybe Williams can but he must have a trust from coach and at this moment Pashutin use his as ball distributor and not attack finisher. So Lokomotiv obviously not ready to score 80+ points these days especially such physical team as Crvena Zvezda is.
On other side Zvezda Monday won in overtime against Partizan in derby. They wasted energy and made a trip to Krasnodar. Offensively they also have problems especially in away matches where they just twice scored more than 73 points this season (against weak Siroki and Maccabi when there is no defensive pressure from hosts).
Lokomotiv defensively is looking very good since the start of the season and I expect them to stop Zvezda somewhere in 65-72 points range. And I hardly see Lokomotiv scoring more than 78 points here. So for me this is a clear under 150 points game.
Pick: Under 151.5 @ 1.90 5/10 William Hill
Real Madrid – Zalgiris
This Sunday Real will play Madrid derby against Estudiantes and this game should be more important than today match. I expect Real to play calm game today without extra-gear which they showed against Efes Pilsen. Defensively they are looking very solid and I expect them to limit Zalgiris offense under 70 points. Sure offensively Real is hard to stop but Zalgiris will also to its best to avoid 90+ points. I see this match ending with somewhere in 150-160 range and will do a small bet on under here too.
As for other games I see some value in Fenerbahce – Budivelnik under 158 and Strasbourg @ 1.92, but 2.5-3 points value is not enough for a minimal bet. Maybe these leans will help you in live-betting.
Pick: under 160.5 @ 1.93 3/10 Pinnacle