Euroleague Week 6. Thursday Picks

shengelia laboralWe have 7 games in tonight schedule, but there are not so many positions where it is possible to talk about value betting, however it exists at least in 4 of them according my analysis. The problem is that in most cases value is less than 5 points and it’s hard to name such ones as a strong one. But let’s try to indetify at least 2 positions for tonight evening. 

Neptunas – Laboral

Laboral is another team, which dismissed their coach last week. New coach (at least for now) is Ibon Navarro who worked as assistant here since 2007 with short experience in Valencia (2011-2013). He knows players much better than M.Crespi who tried to force them playing his schemes, instead of build new system based on players skills. This game is very important for Laboral after their loss to Crvena Zvezda because with a win they will do a huge to Top-16 stage. L.Hamilton is out for month, but replacement (Mirza Begic) came and will play today.

Neptunas surprised public with 3 covered spreads in a row at home. Now public believe in them, but not me. Neptunas has too weak roster for this competition. So far they won against Zvezda (close to their level) and Valencia, which can’t find their game. Laboral has much more talent than Neptunas and their experience on this level is the key here. Heurtel, San Emeterio, Begic, Vujacic knows how to win games like this, while Neptunas is yet to play such games.

I expected to see Neptunas as +5.5 underdog here. Actually they were 7.5 dogs against Valencia one week ago. What happened this week to give them -1 against stronger team (or at least the same level) than Valencia? Nothing. And yes.. System also support this bet, because Neptunas is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) at home and Laboral is on 0-3 ATS run.

Pick: Laboral to win @ 1.82 Pinnacle

Turow – Panathinaikos

Greeks game plan is very logical and easy: stop Turow playing fast paced basketball. PAO is a team which is forcing opponents to play half court basketball, where greens can benefit on both ends of the floor. I hardly see Turow doing more than 78-82 posessions today and if PAO defense was able to hold Barcelona offense at 0.95 points/poss last week, today this number should be even lower (somewhere between 0.86-0.92). So I expect Turow to score 67-75 points today.

Another pick come as system selection. PAO is on 3-0 ATS run. They are good team, but not so good to have -6.5 line in away game. Turow defended well against Bayern and if that performance will be repeated they can stay in the game until the end. And maybe their style is not suitable for PAO, actually that’s why they PAO to change game scheme today. Let’s see but I can Turow fighting for the difference at least.

Pick: Turow under 76.5 @ 1.85 Unibet

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Unics – Efes Pilsen

CSKA – ALBA

Bayern – Barcelona

 

 

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