Euroleague Week 7. Group A Puzzle

cantu-cajaWe have a very tough day today. 7 matches will be played but lines are very solid as usual on Euroleague. I will try to give you my insight on today games with 2 picks for one game in Group A, where every team still has chance can finish first after 6 rounds played. But only one team knows how to win important games when it is needed…

Unics vs. GS Medical Park

Before the season I rated Galatasaray as a better team on paper and they are still better with so many high class players. But at this moment Unics is probably hottest team in Euroleague and they current form and home court might compensate that small class difference. If both teams would be in the same form I would set Unics as -3 favorite at home. But Unics is very hot these days and I think they can beat Turkish team by 5-10 points. I think that -6.5 is fair and there is no reason to touch this line.

Fenerbahce Ulker vs. Olympiacos

Olympiacos is improving week by week and can stay in the game for long now. Ulker not so good to trust them but still not so bad to against them. Everything might happen in this match. Better to stay away but my lean is Olympiacos +5.

Union Olimpija vs. Montepaschi

Despite losing Kaukenas for few months at least I still see Montepaschi dominating in Ljubliana. Montepaschi defense should take care of poor Olimpija game and I doubt that Olimpija will find the way to stop Montepaschi. But you know that Montepaschi these days are not trustable. They just need to stop their fall in the table and Lubliana is best place to do it.

Cantu – Caja Laboral

Cantu is playing great but they are still and outsider of this group together with Nancy. Caja was a favorite in Nancy but got 1.90-1.90 line in Cantu. Something is wrong here with Cantu evaluation. They are good playing team but I really don’t see them as Top-16 material. Caja is much better team with tons of experience and they know how to win games away from home in diffult areas. I really don’t see any line where Cantu is better than Caja Laboral. I would set Caja Laboral as 3.5-5 points favorite if this game would be played in the beginning of Euroleague. Now stats and results support Cantu but I go here for Caja and class difference.

Also I think that this game is burn for under. Two slow paced defensive teams meets in match where a lot is on the stake. Both teams have injured players and not so good form especially in offense. I expect to see Cantu in 64-70 range while Caja’s estimated range is between 66 and 75 points.

Pick: Caja Laboral @ 1.81 3/10 Pinnacle
Pick: Under 148.5 @ 1.90 4/10 Expekt

EA7 Armani vs. Real Madrid

Madrid will travel to Milano without Rudy Fernandez, out with a knee problem. Novica Velickovic is still out, too. Forward Malik Hairston did not play a domestic game this weekend for EA7 Emporio Armani, but his status for Thursday is not known. Bouroussis got injured on the training and also is questionable for Milan.

If Milan would be healthy I would pick them despite their strange form. They need to win this match and at home they can do it. But let’s wait for a news about injured players.

Partizan mt:s vs. Maccabi Electra

Maccabi is better team in overall. I would say “much better” especially with Farmar on the court. But is hard to ignore Partizan home court strength and bad performances of Maccabi in last 2 or 3 weeks. Also don’t forget that Maccabi this year playing in Adriatic League. I am not a big fan of fixed games but in case with Partizan looks that sometimes their results so strange… Let’s see but I would not touch Maccabi handicap here for sure. Partizan +3.5 looks promising but I can’t back teams when I don’t see them at least on the same level as opponent.

Asseco Prokom vs. FCB Regal

Barca without Navarro but this is not a big problem for them. They still have Mickael, Lorbek, Huertas and Eidson in starting 5 and this more than enough to win in Euroleague. Prokom is playing much better than their position in the table. But the fixture is playing against them and now motivation is playing against them too. They are 3 wins away from 4th place and they are losing to Galatasaray h2h. But I expect Prokom to fight against mighty Barcelona for their pride and the last thing I would do here is backing Barcelona -11.5 handicap.

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