We had almost perfect day yesterday and I hope that today’s free selection will continue this winning streak. This time it comes from Russia.
N.Novgorod – Zalgiris
With just 4 games left in regular season victory here might be crucial for each team. Zalgiris is in better situation because he won against Unics and Nizniy Novgorod at home, but he still needs to care about points difference and win against Efes and Sassari at home. The problem for lithuanians is that Russian team improved its game during the last few weeks while Zalgiris playing at its maximum. No important missings for both clubs.
Niznyj Novgorod has better players in starting five, but Zalgiris on other side has deeper bench and defensively so far they also looked better. In my ranking teams are on the same level and that was the reason why I skipped -5.5 bet on Zalgiris in first round. Today we have -2.5 for the hosts and it means that bookies set Zalgiris as better team on neutral ground. Also early bettors supports Zalgiris after their last week performance. But let’s not forget about their loss to Sassari 2 weeks ago, because away from home Zalgiris always was very weak team (excluding those seasons when they had powerful rosters).
All in one, I see Niznyj Novgorod as typical home court favorite that should be getting -4.5 spread at least. I would set them with -5.5 spread, because they will try to win highest possible difference.
Pick: N.Novgorod (-2.5) @ 1.95 Pinnacle
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