In today’s free edition we wil review three games in group A, where I see most interesting lines in terms of betting.
Unics – Zalgiris
Zalgiris signed new PG Will Cherry from Cleveland Cavs, but it is very hard to understand his level . He never was a big scorer or assister and I can’t see him saving Zalgiris in such match as this one and he should not play many minutes today after being with teams for a few days. In last games Zalgiris level of game dropped a lot and now team showing its real level..
Unics is a different class team and I would be surprised to see them with lower than 6 points handicap. Unics teams want to revenge for away loss and wants to win by 7 points what guarantee them 3rd place in a group. Bookies set line for this fight..
I see 2 scenarios here: Unics start strong and finish game in the same way and wins this by 12+ points or they start strong but allows another bad 2nd half and in the end we will see game around 7 points spread. So I decided to take Unics spread in first half.
Pick: Unics 1st half (-4) @ 1.93 Pinnacle
Efes Pilsen – N.Novgorod
When these teams played in Russia I said that I hold them on the same level. Now situation is little bit different. Efes still has the same poor squad, which is going to fail on the long distance. This distance become longer and longer each week and they still can’t fail to their real level. But soon we will see their real level as we see this with Zalgiris, which also very hot with poor roster at the start of the season. Ok, I can agree that Efes is a better team here but handicap should not be higher than 9 points here, even if Rochestie is out for Novgorod for 3 weeks.
We should not forget about motivation here too. Efes knows that they have no chance to win in Madrid and they are more than ok with second spot in the group. Niznyj Novgorod on other side needs to win here to stay in Top-16 race.
Novgorod is really hot and dangerous team and 11 points handicap is at least 2 points higher line that it should be. With Rochestie I would take Novgorod +11 as 7/10 stake, but without him I would like to see 13 points handicap. That’s why I decided to go here with system selections because Efes is riding is 5-0 against the spread in last 5 matches and this streak should end this or next week.
Pick: Novgorod +11 @ 1.91
Sassari – Real Madrid
Bookmakers in my opinion did a nice job when they opened line at 170.5 points. Both teams like to play fast paced basketball, but Real Madrid has good transition defense and they usually don’t allow opponents to score with more than 0.93 points/possesion. Sassari has just 0.87 pts/possession in Euroleague and it’s clear that their offense not working on this level. I see Sassari making here 90-92 posessions, but this in best case will result in 83 points. Game pace should be slower, Real defense could work much better and there are many reasons for Sassari to finish under 80 points.
On other side we have Real Madrid which will play without S.Rodriguez. Lull and Campazzo will share PG position, but they are not so good in making plays for their teammates. And I doubt that Real will be able to show their 100% basketball here in offense. But playing at high pace and with rebound control they should able to reach 88-94 points.
All in one, I expect Sassari to finish under 80 points and Real to score around 90 points. We’ll have two bets here: under 174.5 because my line here 169 points and Real to cover the spread, because everything points to double digits win here and Real failed to cover spread in 5 games in a row.
Pick: Real Madrid -10.5 @ 1.92
Pick: Under 176 @ 1.92
Olympiacos – Crvena Zvezda
Laboral – Valencia
Limoges – ALBA