Euroleague Week 8. Thursday Picks

pargoTechnical issues forced me to delay picks publishing. But still I am glad to offer 3 free picks for today for Euroleague games. 

Fenerbahce – Panathinaikos

Quite surprised to see such total line for this game. PAO is very slow team, which always force opponents to play half court basketball. When these teams played in Greece game pace was very slow (157 posessions) but PAO scored unbelievable 18/26 3-pointers (70%) and finished with 91 points. I don’t expect such magic to happen in Turkey, where home team will try to take sweet revenge. Fenerbahce has better finishing schedule and should be happy with simple win and that’s why I don’t take Ulker -5.5 with full stakes. 

I see low paced game under 160 posessions and with average percentage this game should get 147 total line. However, I am not sure about average percentages here, because both teams doing great job defensively and can fail offensively against organized defenses.

Pick: Under 153.5 @ 1.90 Pinnacle

Maccabi – ALBA

It’s time for Pargo to shine finally. He is the leading shooter in Maccabi, but so far was struggling with %. He scored 12+ pts in 4 of 7 EL games and failed against CSKA and Unicaja defensive schemes. ALBA is not so good defensively at this level and Jeremy should be able to use his quickness, acrobatics and penetration skills to score at least 14 points tonight.

Pick: J.Pargo (Maccabi) over 12.5 @ 1.85 Pargo

Zalgiris – Efes Pilsen

Efes comes to Kaunas without Krstic, Janning and Osman. It means D.Ivkovic has just 6 players from his normal rotation and will be forced to include 17-19 y.o. players. Zalgiris on other side has full roster available and wants to secure Top-16 birth. If Novgorod will lose its game to Real Madrid, Zalgiris with a win almost qualifies to Top-16 because of good h2h margin against N.Novgorod. If Real somehow will lose game in Russia, than Zalgiris will be even more motivated here, because Unics may fix their game in Nizny Novgorod and leave Zalgiris out of Top-16.

I expect to see slow game and defensive approach from both sides from first minutes. There is a risk of close match at the end, so I prefer to take 1st half under 71.5.

Pick: 1st half under 71.5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle

 

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