Last week was not that good as previous few weeks, but let’s continue our journey with 3 more picks from Euroleague Week 9.
CSKA MOSCOW vs. REGAL FC BARCELONA
CSKA is 1-7 against the spread this season but this is exactly the point where we need go against this trend. CSKA after loss to Ulker without chances to grab 1st place, but actually the only long term motivation for CSKA is to avoid Real Madrid on the way to Final Four. And with a 9+ points victory CSKA will achieve this goal, because 2nd spot in this group gives a good chance to avoid Real in quarterfinal for 100% and with good seed to avoid best Euroleague team at this moment until Final.
CSKA should have V.Khriapa whoes injury was not serious (he just needed some rest) and this is great addition for Moscow team. He is very important player for whole team and if he would be on field last they wouldn’t waste their lead against Ulker in the way the did.
Barcelona also has a full roster but Abrines and Pananikolao (both important players this season) has virus infection and their use is questionable. B.Oleson completed the trip to Moscow and E.Lorbek is trying to return to the game after injury. So Barcelona weak point – their hard to predict bench performance – becomes even more unpredictable. Lampe will have a hard evening tonight because he never was comfortable playing against CSKA, Navarro substitute is under question, Pullen is out of rhytm and rotation..
I agree that CSKA doesn’t look like a well-working mechanism but tonight Barcelona might be absolutely happy with a 7-9 points loss. And CSKA will do its best to win by 10.. I just see good chances to cover -5 spread by 2-3 pts at least, and would not be suprised with double digit win.
Pick: CSKA (-5) @ 1.91 5/10 Bet365
OLYMPIAKOS PIREUS vs. MONTEPASCHI SIENA
In the morning I took here under 150.5 but line moved to 147.5 and there is less value here. The only chance for Siena to win here is to slow down Olympiacos offense. Olympiacos is quite average pace team and according to my system we should see here 137-148 points game. Still some value on under exists.
Pick: under 148.5 @ 1.90 3/10 William Hill
UNICAJA MALAGA vs. FC BAYERN MUNICH
Unicaja can live with a loss here, but in that case they will be obligated to win in Siena next week. But with 20+ victory they can build a nice gap before deciding match. In example, with 20 points they can allow themself to lose by 10 points in Siena. Bayern on other side could be absolutely satisfied with less than 14 points loss, because in that case they will need just to win at home against motivationless Galatasaray.
It worth to me mention that Malaga court should have filled with 7-8 thousands spectators today. Just twice this season Malaga played in such atmosphere in their season opener against Estudiantes and Olympiacos. With defensive approach I see good chances for Unicaja to cover the spread at least, because they will try to reach that 15-20 points difference and should not lose concentration when leading by 10+ points.
Pick: Unicaja -5.5 @ 1.90 3/10 Bet365