Euroleague F4 – 2018: Semifinals Preview

 

One more Euroleague season come to end. It was very profitable for paid subscribers and I hope free picks too. Only 3 big games left in the schedule. Of course, it’s hard to find good bets, especially when line is out immediately after playoffs. But let’s finish the season with semifinals preview. 

Fenerbahce – Zalgiris

Zalgiris Kaunas

They played twice in regular season. Zalgiris won on the road without P.Jankunas and had total control over the them till 4th quarter at home. But that Fenerbahce woke up, scored 33 points and took the victory.

Zalgiris like Cinderella this season. Some people think that magic will over, but I think that there is no magic. Zalgiris did a lot of job in last 2 years to be here. Now it’s time to win 2 games and finish the campaign. They have good system and that’s important. But they don’t have quality & experience, that gives them confidence and result.

Fenerbahce is different story. They have plenty of talent, depth and huge experience. But their system is not at that level it was last season, when they had clear leader B.Bogdanovic and huge supporting staff. Wanamaker, Sloukas, Vesely – great players, but not super talents. That’s a problem. Because seems that Pangos is very close to required level.

I see Fenerbahce as stronger team, which is playing against better balanced and better playing team. In such games it’s hard to predict what will prevail: quality or discipline. I think this game will be very close with possible up and downs from both teams. Of course, psychological might be a factor too.

As for the total my range is 144-157 points. But I don’t want to take Under here, because there is not enough value for full stake and h-2-h is against this bet. Both games this season were very slow 136 and 138 attacks, but teams scored 163 and 179 points. Seems that defensively there are a lot of troubles for both coaches. That’s the game when team can score 160+ points playing slow paced game.

I skip here and support Zalgiris!

CSKA – Real Madrid

Luka Doncic from Real Madrid

Real recovered Lull and L.Doncic is doing well again in all areas. I think that Llull is very important factor for P.Lasso team, because he provides quality to PG position, where spanish powerhouse lacks quality and players. Campazzo is injured and C.Randle get minutes only in garbage time.

CSKA also had injury troubles, but fixed them. De Colo and Hines has returned to training process, but they did not play competitive game since EL playoffs. And that could be a deciding factor, because CSKA depth quality is big question for me. Such players as Westermann, Antonov, Hunter are not yet ready for such level games as this one.

One more reason to back Real Madrid as underdog is their 5-1 ATS road record as underdogs. Also experience might be important, because Real has huge experience in playing Copa del Rey events in February, while CSKA is 1-3 in Euroleague Semifinals.

Total line is fair.

Pick: Real Madrid +3,5 @ 1.92 5/10

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