Euroleague Final. Fenerbahce – Olympiacos

Fenerbahce - Olympiacos

The teams split home wins during the regular season, but will play deciding match tonight at 20:00 at packed “Fenerbahce” arena. Both times it was slow (136 and 133 attacks) and defensive minded (67:64 and 62:71) basketball. But in Greece, where Oly won 71:62 turks were without their leader B.Bogdanovic. In home game he played and scored 27 points. Stopping All-EuroLeague center Ekpe Udoh is a priority for Olympiacos. Udoh leads the EuroLeague in rebounds (7.7 rpg.) and blocks (2.1 bpg.), but Olympiacos has enough manpower in the paint with Nikola Milutinov, Patric Young and Khem Birch to slow him down. Fenerbahce must find a way to stop Vassilis Spanoulis, whose fourth-quarter heroics allowed Olympiacos to get past CSKA Moscow in the semifinals. His matchup against Bogdan Bogdanovic will be critical in this game.

Handicap

I liked the energy level of Fenerbahce, they had demonstrated against Real Madrid in semifinal. All players are determined, great support from the stands and some help from referees should expected too. Olympiacos doesn’t have so much quality withing their roster. Spanoulis is great players, but he is far from being a top player like Bogdanovic. Datome, Udoh, Sloukas, Vesely for me a better players than Printezis, Green, Birch, Papanikolao. On the bench also small advantage for the hosts. The only questional is mentality, but Z.Obradovic experience should help here too.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Olympiacos did what they wanted to. Promoted to the finals, but CSKA was not able to demonstrate physical basketball and that helped Oly to win that game, despite they were 10 points down during the game. Fenerbahce will use their agressive defense to stop sloppy Olympiacos offense, but I have big doubts that Oly will be allowed to play hard defense in Istanbul by the referees.

Expecting Fenerbahce to win Euroleague by beating Olympiacos by 6-11 points. If you took Olympiacos as future bet – get out of that position and fix profit to both sides.

Total

  • Home avg. pace: 141 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,02-1,11 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 144 attacks (-)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.02-1,14 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 134-137 attacks
    Expected total range: 136-154 points

Trends

  • Olympiacos 5-2 for UNDER in last 7 road games
  • Fenerbahce 6-1 for UNDER in last 7 home games

We have 2 strong under trends, but we don’t have mathematical value to take under.

Pick: Fenerbahce (-6) @ 1.95 

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