Euroleague Final Four. CSKA – Olympiacos

This is the fourth time these two powerhouses meet at the Final Four in the past six years and Olympiacos won each of the first three, including a dramatic 61-62 decision in the 2012 championship game in this very same Sinan Erdem Dome.

D.Kulagin will miss Final Four due the injury for CSKA. Milos Teodosic hasn’t played since April, 25 due the problems with old injury. Teodosic expected to play, but he returned to the group just this this week and might be out of form.

Matt Lojeski still can’t play for Olympiacos, but greek team is already addopted to play without him.

Stats

  • CSKA avg. pace: 150 attacks
  • CSKA avg. scoring: 1,02-1,10 pts/attack
  • Olympiacos average pace: 141 attacks
  • Olympiacos avg. scoring: 1.02-1,14 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 146 attacks
  • Expected total range: 149-165 points

Trends

  • CSKA 9-2 for UNDER in last 11 road games
  • Olympiacos is 8-3 for UNDER in last 11 road games

Prediction

CSKA 76 – 78 Olympiacos

I can’t agree with the fact, that CSKA gets 6 points handicap here. Olympiacos is uncomfortable opponent for them and this season already proved, that they can fight with CSKA. We should take regular season games too closely, because in Greece Olympiacos played really bad first half and was out of shape at that moment. In Moscow both teams played with desire to hide defensive and offensive schemes.

The key moment for my bet here is CSKA problems this season in away games against defensive minded game and close ends. Actually CSKA is only 3-10 ATS in last 13 away games, while Olympiacos is 10-4 ATS on the road in last 14 games. I think that this trend tells everything about this game. Defensive skills of Olympiacos should create a lot of problems to Itoudis and his guys. I see this match as very close one with both teams able to win it.

Regarding, the total trends points to UNDER 157, but there is no mathematical value to take it as a pre-match bet.

Pick: Olympiacos +6,5 @ 1.92 5/10
P.S. If you took Olympiacos to win Euroleague @ 20 as I’ve adviced – keep with that bet.

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