Last games and last picks of Euroleague 2014/15 season..
CSKA – Fenerbahce
Teodosic seems to be out today for CSKA due the ankle injury. Zeljko Obradovic wants to use extended rotation. Nobody interested in game like this and it’s hard to analyze it.
However, I see tiny value in Ulker. Obradovic has healthy team, which clearly lost in semifinal and saved more energy than CSKA. Kirilenko seems to be out of shape, Teodosic out, mental and physical fatique is also against CSKA. Also I have some doubts that CSKA will find motivation for one more 3rd place game, and for Ulker, which is here first time, – third place might huge motivation. Also Obradovic can motivate players too. I expect Fenerbahce to have more energy and fighting spirit on court today.
Total line is already affected by 3rd game factor and total is higher than it should in normal game. I don’t think that it is good idea to take such high total line for over as pre-match bet. Better to wait to take lower total at in-play
Pick: Fenerbahce to win @ 2.71 2/10
Pick: Fenerbahce +4.5 @ 1.92 2/10
Real Madrid – Olympiacos
I like Olympiacos defense, fighting spirit and V.Spanoulis talent a lot. But I don’t like when public starting to overstimate teams. Line moved down to -6.5 after -8 at opening moment and now it means that Real is just -2.5 favorite on neutral ground. Let me remind you that Real has Rodriguez, Lull, Ayon, Fernandez, Noccioni, Carroll (to-level players), while Olympiacos has Spanoulis and Printezis.. I think that clear chances here not right, because Real must be at least -5 favorite on neutral ground. Real knows Olympiacos, they know what to expect in offense and defense, they will take Olympiacos seriously and only doubts for me is Fernandez and Lull form. Real needs at least one of them to play a good game to get needed result.
Olympiacos has no weapons in defense against Ayon, Reyes and I am not sure about their ability to play physical defense playing in Madrid against the hosts. If referees will allow teams to hustle, that Real will be in problem, but if every touch will be whistled than Olympiacos has very slim chances to survive here.
There is not enough value to take this bet as official, but we have system on our side here. Olympiacos won 3 spreads in a row and this run might be ended today.
Pick: Real Madrid (-6.5) @ 1.92