Euroleague Playoffs. Tuesday Game 3 Previews

spanoulis 2014Today I have no bets to offer, because pre-match lines don’t offer enough to take side or total. 

Olympiacos – Barcelona

In first games we have seen slow paced defensive minded basketball and I don’t expect this to in Game 3 & 4. But it’s hard to believe than Barcelona will continue to shoot ball with 40% percentage from 2pts zone as they did at home. They have tall players to finish their possessions with high effeciency and it’s only a matter of time (an Olympiacos defense of course), when Barcelona offense will start to work good. Bookmakers logically expect percentage to increase and set total at ~145 points after 139 and 140 games in Barcelona. According to my data based on season pts/possession efficiency, In case both teams will score closer to their average stats we will see 136-150 points and bookers just doing a great job in setting pre-match line. 

Barcelona has more quality in their roster and might use this as well, but you know that Olympiacos doesn’t fear to play against big teams and at home they can do miracles. But at current odds I don’t see enough value in taking guests here, but value is on their side. I think that pk line is fair here. 

Efes Pilsen – Real Madrid

There is too much class difference between these teams (bigger than between Panathinaikos and CSKA), but so far Real played two bad games and won both… What will happen in Real will play their best game and Efes will play an average one? We have seen that scenario in second half of Game 1.. I don’t want to risk money here, because I pretty agree with Real spread here and total is better to bet in-play (wait for opportunity to take under 167.5+) 
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