Galatasaray – Barcelona

Guler against PangosLast week Barcelona was demolished at home by Real Madrid and this week travels to Turkey, where they want to end their losing streak. But Galatasaray shows signs of new life after beating Olympiacos and Darussafaka in their last 2 home games.

After humiliating loss to Real Madrid last week everyone expect Barca to react with a victory against weak Galatasaray side. But -4 looks like an absolutely healthy line, even considering that Doellman and Claver are back to training process and should be available for this game. We can speculate with numbers and own estimations, expect than will show their best level, but value doesn’t exist here for sure. Line states than Galatasaray is 4-points home underdog? What else can be said? Bookmakers knows their job well, they expect money flow on Barca and hope that E.Ataman and hot public will do a trick this evening. And I said last week, when was backing Galatasaray against Darussafaka, without Dentmon and Russ they might become better team… But they will never become such high-quality team as Barcelona.

What side to back?

I don’t see value in Barcelona spread tonight, but this is the only side I would like to back in this game. I think it’s better to wait for in-play opportunities to back catalans in case of strong start from Galatasaray. And anyway this is not safe investment, because Barca still fails to show high-level basketball. But at least with almost full roster there are more chances to see them winning such games as this one.

Under or over?

Home avg. pace: 147 attacks
Home avg. scoring: 1.21 pts/attack

Away average pace: 140 attacks
Away avg. scoring: 0.95 pts/attack

Both teams tends to play slower tempo, when they meet defensive opponent. So I expect around 140 attacks to be done here. At this pace with average teams percentage game total range is too wide (from 133 to 169 points) to decide with over/under bet. But it is clear than there is more space on under side with this estimation.

It’s hard to go against Galatasaray average numbers at home (they are 4-0 for Over 159 at home). Don’t forget that Barcelona is capable to explode offensively against weak defense (and Gala defense is definitely weak).

Betting advice

For the outcome my advice here to wait for better odds on Barcelona at in-play. I would take it as pre-game bet if line would -0.5 on them. But be careful, because we need to feed this Barca before doing a bet on them.

Total market is more easy task. We have good pace for under, but shooting percentage might be very high. We need to wait for 168+ line at in-play to bet on under.

Paid picks & previews

  • CSKA – Baskonia
  • Panathinaikos – Darussafaka
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