Euroleague Playoffs. Game 3 Bets and Previews

Spanoulis against Jankunas

Power Rating

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BC Khimki

Khimki – CSKA


Under 171 @ 1.95


CSKA Moscow
N.De Colo and K.Hines out for CSKA, while Khimki keep playing good in this series with healthy roster.

They have to improve defensively and lock CSKA offense to lower numbers, if they want to win. CSKA playing on the road also gives more attention to pace control and defensive work. Both coaches see improvement in defensive area and with trends & stats (see below) I think we should bet Under here without any doubt.

  • Home avg. scoring: 1.04-1.11 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.09-1.18 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 144 attacks
  • Expected total range: 153-163 points


  • CSKA 5-2 for Under in last 7 road games
  • Khimki 9-2 for Under in last 11 home games

As for the outcome I would recommend to skip betting on handicap. CSKA still a good team and there is no value on Khimki side today.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid – Panathinaikos


I stay with my position regarding Real Madrid. They reacted with a victory in Game 2 and took home court advantage. Now it’s time to use it. S.Lull will play his first game this season, but of course nobody knows how good he is feeling right now. But I think that his comeback is important from psychological point of view and rotation depth too.

My numbers say that Real should take this victory with handicap (90:76 predicted score), but at this moment both teams are playing good basketball and I don’t want to risk money and play (-7). It’s better to wait live and good start from guests and than jump on Real Madrid.


Fenerbahce – Baskonia


Fenerbahce Dogus
Total line looks a bit higher that should be, with 1,13 pts/attack average in 5 h-2-h games – 157 line looks fine here. Bookies give us 159 total line, but that’s not enought to make a bet. Both teams has quality in offense and even playing slow paced basketball can score ~160 points. I prefer to skip total betting here.

  • Home avg. scoring: 1.08-1.17 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.09-1.18 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 139 attacks
  • Expected total range: 151-163 points

As for the outcome I don’t see anything interesting here. Fenerbahce is better team (another level team I would say) and they get correct odds. A.Granger should be back for Baskonia and this huge improvement for them, if he is in fine form after injury. But I don’t see reasons to back someone at these odds.

BC Zalgiris

Zalgiris – Olympiacos


Under 150,5 @ 1.95 5/10

The key of the game of the series will be played tonight in sold-out and absolutely crazy Zalgirio Arena. In Game 1 & 2 we had slow paced possesioned minded game full of tactics solution and defensive work. But I think that defense might improve even more, because both teams had some good scoring moments during the game and percentage was close to average numbers.

Last time, when these teams played in Kaunas they had just 134 attacks and Zalgiris won 74:68. In Game 1 & 2 we had 133 and 143 attacks, so seems that pace will be slow again. And we have some points of value on Under, because average quality of h2h game is 1.07 pts/attack. If game pace will be around 135 attacks we should see finish around 146 points.

There is not enough value to take this bet with medium stake, but it’s ok as system bet, because we strong trend on Olympiacos side which is 11-4 for Under on the road.



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