Betting in Euroleague playoffs never was my strong side mainly because it is impossible to find value bets here. So today I decided to take my system selection only for low stakes.
Real Madrid – Efes Pilsen
Real played two different halves in Game 1, but I did not like the both. In first Efes was much better team, after half time Efes dissapeared from court, Real got control over the game quite easy and when they play without pressure – it’s hard to stop them. Efes playing good basketball, but they need to improve defensively if they want to achieve something in Madrid. Unfortunately, against top offense they usually fail defensively and it’s hard to expect such bad scoring half like Real did in Game 1.
I expect Real to finish in 84-90 points today and Efes to score 72-76. If total line would be at least 156.5 – I would advise to take over here with small stakes, but at current odds it’s better to skip.
Barcelona – Olympiacos
Olympiacos played solid defense in Game 1. Barcelona scored just 40.5% from 2 pts zone, but made 10/21 3-pointers and that helped them to score 73 points. I think that Olympiacos defensively has well working game-plan and with Spanoulis form improvement they can surprise the world in Game 5 (or in Game 4 if they win tonight). The major problem of Olympiacos was their offensive performance. They made just 6 of 22 long shots and allowed 15 offensive rebounds. They should improve in both areas, especially in offense.
Barcelona will miss B.Oleson tonight (sprained ankle). Spanoulis should get more playing time. I don’t see much value here for full stake, but we have system on our side, because Barca covered spread in 3 games in a row and today that run might be ended. Olympiacos should improve offensive and score 68+ points and keep hosts under 76 points.
I think that Olympiacos as good chances to hold +7 handicap today.
Pick: Olympiacos +7 @ 1.89 Pinnacle