2 weeks of Euroleague playoffs may be ended tonight if Olympiacos and Real will qualify to Final Four. It means that this Euroleague season coming to its end. So let’s preview tonight game and find some bets.
Efes Pilsen – Real Madrid
Real not playing well in this series, but still leads 2:1.. In last game Rodriguez, Lull, Carroll showed form improvement and seems that Real is getting hot game by game. For me difference between these teams is exactly the same as was in series between PAO and CSKA.
Efes playing as good as they can, sometimes they look like ideal team and at this moments they do their runs, because Real play without “extra”-gear. On Tuesday M.Janning played phantastic game by hitting 5/7 3-pointers and that was a reason why Efes managed to win. Also Efes won offensive rebounding battle 12-4 in Game 3, and 16-5 in Game 2… Butlet me remind you that Real has Ayon, Mehri, Reyes, Bouroussis under the rim, while Efes has Lasme and Krsctic..
Real can’t give Efes so many bonuses as they already gave in this series. After 3 mediocre games I expect Real finaly to play a good game on both ends of the floor and cover the spread.
Prediction: Efes 71 – 82 Real Madrid
Pick: Real Madrid (-4.5) @ 1.92 Pinnacle
Olympiacos – Barcelona
This pick is based on stats. Olympiacos did 73, 70 and 73 posessions in first 3 games. At home they score with 0.97 pts/possesion quality this season, but their opponents this season were very mediocre in defense. Barcelona has 2nd best defense in Europe (after CSKA), which allows just 0.88 pts/poss. Barcelona is in must-win situation and they should improve their defensive game to get so needed result in Greece. In Game 2 Olympiacos scored 48% from 3-points line, in G3 61.5% from 2PTS FG… and even with such good percentages they scored just 76 and 73 points..
I expect one more low-paced game with long posessions and defense prevailing over both team offenses. Olympiacos again will do less than 75 posessions and I expect them to score somewhere between 65 and 71 points.
Prediction: Olympiacos 68 – 74 Barcelona
Pick: Olympiacos under 73 @ 1.82 Pinnacle