Here are my leans for in-play scenarios:
- Crvena Zvezda +6,5 and more
- Under 162+ in Kaunas
- CSKA Moscow to win at 2,40+
- Fenerbahce win @ 1.90+
And here is why:
Fenerbahce – Milan
B.Bogdanovic expected to be on court today for turks. Milan will miss Sanders for 3 weeks and less important Bruno Cerella was operated last week (will miss longer time).
Milan has no other choice than find unexpected victories to return to playoff fight, but their level of game is not at Euroleague level. They 4-11 ATS all season long and it proves than public overstimate them. It’s not understandable for many bettors (including me), how such good team by names can play such bad basketball. But somehow they manage… But now we see them in totally different level of estimation and maybe being such dogs they will be able to bring profit.
I don’t see good opportunities to take something in this match at such line.
Zalgiris Kaunas – Crvena Zvezda
After losing at home to Zalgiris serbs should be very motivated to take revenge to increase their playoff chances. Zalgiris thinks the same way. If they win, they get h2h advantage against direct competitor and moves to 9th position before deciding part of the season, when they travels to play against Galatasaray and host Real, CSKA and Barcelona.
Crvena Zvezda as for me at this point is slightly better team and deserve favorite status (-2 pts) on neutral ground. So in Kaunas that should be translated to -2.5 line. Zalgiris has no really important news – Seibutis is ill, but is game-time decision. Serbs came with full roster, which was strengthened by D.Thompson (ex-Galatasaray).
I don’t see enough value to take CZ in this match (would take +5.5 line). Total line is already adjusted to expected slow game. My total range (from above mentioned stats) is 148-158 points.
Olympiacos – Panathinaikos
Both Spanoulis and Printezis are ready to play for Olympiacos. A.Gentile is eligible to play for Panathinaikos since this week. Line is well balanced here and we have nothing to choose from. PAO will try to take revenge for home loss, but Olympiacos is not comfortable opponent for them with their defense and agressive game style. Oly is a right favorite in this match up and we need to wait for better odds on Oly at in-play to take it (1.95+ is ok).
Real Madrid – CSKA Moscow
- Home avg. pace: 154 attacks (+)
- Home avg. scoring: 1.11-1.12 pts/attack
- Away average pace: 155 attacks (+)
- Away avg. scoring: 1.05-1.08 pts/attack
- Expected pace: 159 attacks
Both teams will have all players available for this match, so we can expect great show this evening in Madrid.
Real is not playing well at the moment. They lost to Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade (CSKA too), Betis and Baskonia and won against Efes without Llull (but did not play well there). They will try to show their best game today, but I think that bookied did right decision by setting CSKA as shaded favorite here.
CSKA this season is better team than Real, because they have less players, who play below expectations. But as a they are yet to find balance. They are just 1-4 ATS in last 5 away games and struggle to beat handicaps. This game is a little bit different story because CSKA is listed as 1.5 pts underdog here. They should not cover anything to bring money – just to win and they are usually good. The problem is with the price. I don’t like it much, because CSKA also not playing superb basketball last few weeks. All season long they fail to play 40 minutes and almost each game we can get better odds on them at HT or during second half.
Real Madrid will be very motivated at home, but at current odds I don’t see good bets. Perfect scenario for us – strong start from Real Madrid and CSKA win from behind with odds around 2.60+.
Total is at good point. Last season game pace was 157 attacks (86:97, but CSKA scored 13/26 from 3 pts). This season I expect another up-tempo game with expected range of 168-178 points.