The most important for me – stats, which clearly shows us that we might get under 167 game if both both teams will play with their normal percentages. Khimki at home has 0,915 pts/poss and Laboral away just 0,865. If both teams will get ~90 possessions it will result in 156-165 game. I know that Laboral played against weak offensive team in regular seasons, but they also struggled to score against tight defense.
Both teams are after loss and should react, especially guests. Laboral next week play against CSKA, than travels to Madrid and Barcelona. So this game is very important for Laboral and they are looking good in defense this season.
Finally, I like matchups here. Vyaltsev and Rice should be thrown in defense on James & Adams and they will press each other on 3 points line all time. Under the baskets I also can’t see easy life and baskets for Bouroussis, who will be guarded by Augustine & defensive minded Sokolov.
Sure, nothing can help us if teams will shoot with 50% from 3-points line. But that quite rare issue in basketball (but somehow often happens with my under bets).
I expect ~175-180 points possessions here (bit may be lower) and at this pace right total range is 156-165 points, so 167 is definitely worth a bet.
Prediction: Khimki 85 – 78 Laboral
Pick: Under 168 @ 1.92 Pinnacle
- Real Madrid – Zalgiris