Paid picks & previews for March 31

Lukas LekaviciusPaid picks and previews, that have been sent to paid subscribers on 31/03/2017.

Crvena Zvezda – Unics

This game means nothing for both clubs. After Darussafaka victory in Bamberg everything between them and Crvena Zvezda will be decided next week in Istanbul. S.Jovic still out with injury and seems that Radonjic doesn’t want to risk him in game like this. Of course, Crvena Zvezda showed much better basketball this season, but right now they are in tough position. Next week they have 2 deciders. The first one in ABA League against Buducnost for place in Euroleague next season and than in Turkey for place in EL Playoffs.

I don’t like odds on CZ in this game. Total is set correctly.

Galatasaray – Baskonia
My line: (+4/168)

  • Home avg. pace: 144 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1,11-1,19 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 151 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.04-1,15 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 148 attacks
  • Expected total range: 159-173 attacks

Trends

  • Galatasaray 5-1 for Over in last 6 home games (12/14 for over 159)
  • Baskonia 7-3 for Over in last 10 road games (9/14 for over 159)

Baskonia is ok with their current position. I think they are more comfortable to play in quarterfinals against Real or CSKA in position of underdog, than against defensive minded Olympiacos and Fenerbahce. Stats & trends are talking for over here and I hope to see high scoring game here.

Pick: Over 159 @ 1.92 7/10 WON

Zalgiris – Milan
My line: (-7/159)

Milan comes to Kaunas with just 8 main players. Kalnietis again joined injury list and will miss next 3-4 weeks. Rakim Sanders expected to return to the roster.

“We are in a time of obvious difficulty because we are few and we tried to use some players in different roles as Dada Pasture 3 or Jamel McLean 4 but to do so effectively We serve workouts that we could not do adequately – the words of Milan coach -. We have to stay strong and united, and for this we also need the support of our people. The goal is to recover injuries, strengthen our health and ultimately was get ready for the playoffs achieve our important goal of the championship. But at the moment we want to concentrate on Kaunas and do the best we can do in this situation the last two races of the EuroLeague . ”

Zalgiris playing its last home game in Euroleague this season. And according to latest data Kaunas wants to say big THANK YOU for the season by filling out Zalgiris arena. Nobody has asked for this, but people comes to support their team, which almost did a miracle this season. So, you can imagine how motivated will be Zalgiris players this evening..

Milan is not ready to compete in Euroleague right now. Zalgiris is absolutely clear favorite in this battle, but price.. I really can’t let myself to take Zalgiris with (-9) spread against any team in Euroleague. They won just twice this season at home with 10+ pts difference. Of course, there is a big change to achieve 3rd double digit victory against shortened Italian champions, especially in such hot and relaxed atmosphere.. But we alway should think about value and it really doesn’t exist here.

Advice: Wait for -4 line on Zalgiris at in-play

Pananthinaikos – CSKA
My line: (+0.5/153)

  • Home avg. pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 0.99-1,10 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 150 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.03-1,11 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 145 attacks
  • Expected total range: 147-160¬†points

Games in Greece are always difficult for Moscow team and special ones for greens. This game is important for PAO, because they are fighting for home court advantage with Fenerbahce, which is playing in Madrid this week and host Barcelona next week. All tickets are sold out, so we can expect great game in great atmosphere this evening. Absolutely must watch game!

CSKA are 8-1 for UNDER in last 9 road games and during that stretch they showed their weakness and strong points. They can defend around 75 points (good point), but against good defensive pressure they are not looking so good, as they were last year. Due that they can’t control games in road games and lost 4 of their last 6 away games in Euroleague. Panathinaikos is not comfortable team for them, because PAO is third best home defense (after Oly and Crvena Zvezda) and they can score points easily, if opponents not playing well in defense. And we should not forget than PAO is 13-1 at home this season!

Health “regular season” line should -4 for CSKA, but odds already adjusted to the current situation. There is no value on handicap market, because this going to be 50/50 game with thriller in end, where I see more chances for PAO to get victory, because CSKA is looking bad in close-out phase of the game on the road.

As for the total I see advantage on UNDER 157, but it’s not enough for a bet. PAO is 3-1 for OVER in last 4 home game and can score points to CSKA defense. I think we should wait for 164+ line to think about UNDER bet.

Advice: Take UNDER 164+ line at HT in case of high scoring 1st half and low pace 

Real Madrid – Fenerbahce
My line: (-8.5/160)

Sloukas is back for Fenerbahce, but Bogdanovic and Datome out. Of course, Obradovic will never give away anything to Real Madrid or any other opponent, but it’s really not easy to play, when you can’t count on 2 VERY IMPORTANT players.

Real will play with full roster and as they should get a little bit higher handicap line against injury-weakened Fenerbahce. But I don’t like such low odds in games of 2 big teams. Fenerbahce likes to play as underdog in such games and we should not forget about their motivation. Obradovic wants to secure home court advantage.

Good game, but nobet for me.

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