Euroleague. November 19 games preview

bobby dixonWe have many games tonight, but it’s not easy to find really good positions. Bookmakers doing their job really, players reacts to all news ontime and bookmakers adjust their lines accordingly to money streams. I will tell you all I think about tonight games and why I decided to skip most of them. 

Zalgiris – Zeliona Gora

No doubt Zalgiris is better team and at home should prove their skills. Zeliona Gora will play 3rd away game in 7 days and this is quite difficult task. J.R.Reynolds is missing for polish champions and D.Borovnjak missed yesterday a training due the sore left ankle (not sure about his playing status for today’s game). Anyway it’s hard to find value in -9.5 line for the hosts, because they are absolutely satisfied by winning this game. Defensive battle is expected here, but bookies set quite low total too here.

Bayern – Fenerbahce 

Bayern on 4 games losing streak (in Euroleague and BBL) but with full roster after they announced that Micic had recovered. Situation in a group is very tough for Bayern after yesterday Real Madrid loss and they should seek for a win and h2h advantage in this game. However, Fenerbahce are looking for same goal. 

Z.Obradovic team is improving week by week, but Sloukas is out tonight and this is quite important miss for them. Fenerbahce tends to avoid fast basketball in their games and I don’t think that we will see high paced game tonight. But I can’t trust money to Fenerbahce defense, because it is mediocre in terms of quality and hard to predict (sometimes work, sometimes not). 

I rate Fenerbahce as better team, but so much and in normal conditions I see Bayern as -2 favorite here. But, as you probably know, in Germany Turkish teams tends to play better than in normal away games due the big fan support, which lives there. Bookmakers seems already have adjusted line to Ulker and there is no value to take Fenerbahce here at these odds. 

Cedevita – Olympiacos

Olympiacos without Spanoulis, Young and Printezis.. After these new line has moved so much towards Cedevita, but we should be careful with croatian side. Olympiacos has enough talents and rotation to win here, but certainly without 3 probably best players it’s hard to go with greeks here.

Cedevita become longer because they have as recovered Zoric and Pilepic. Both teams are on ATS winning streaks and someone streak will end today. Under pressure I would take Olympiacos here, but really can’t find any reasons to picks them at these odds.

Laboral – Milano

Milan without Macvan and Jenkins is questionable with sore back. Italian team is 0-5 against the spread this season and there is a big pressure on players and coach to show the result. Laboral is in good moment form, with better players and solid defense should take revenge, but bookmakers did a good job again here. Maybe Laboral deserves here -9.5 line, but there is really not so much difference between these two team. In Italy we had -4 which was more or less fair line, now seems that Milan is weaker, but still 5-6 points adjustment is quite risky here.

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