We have pretty strong lines today and it is not easy to find good bets today. The only position I have sent to paid subscribers in the afternoon has moved by 2.5-3 points. Other games are are very close to fair chances line. Below you can read my previews for 3 Friday games and decide with your bets.
Lokomotiv – Zalgiris
Despite Russian team owns 7-0 ATS record I still rate them as an average-level team, which is rolling their top form right now. The only difference between Loko and Zalgiris is Delaney (top-level player). Zalgiris don’t have such “star” level player as Weems or Anderson were in last seasons. Plus Loko is playing phantastic basketball last few weeks, but I am sure that this run will end very soon. Maybe even today, because Zalgiris defense is tough one and defensive matchups are just fine here. Kalnietis will guard Delaney, Javtokas – Fesenko, Motum – Brokhorff and so on.
My long term vision is that Loko will collapse. At least if Delaney will not rock (as he did in Greece in 3rd quarter) or shoot 48% from 3pts line – would be enough to see the real level of this team. Right now everyone overestimate them, but we should not forget that PAO is not so strong this season and you will see what kind of revenge Barca will bring them in Krasnodar.
If both teams will play their average game – this one might be a thriller until the end. Hard to see value here looking to last games, but I decided to go with system selection here and stop that huge 7-0 run of Russian team.
Pick: Zalgiris +7.5 @ 1.92
CSKA – Sassari
Sassari sucked their coach last week and hired Calvani, who reached Italy Final two years ago with Roma. As I remember he likes run & gun basketball too, but you can’t run with CSKA for long… CSKA is healthy and with full roster, Sassari too. Game pace should be really high, but I am not sure about Sassari shooting percentage here. CSKA is on 0-4 ATS run, but it’s not a good idea to take such handicap before the game. It’s better to wait for in-play market and took lower handicap. I expect 88-95 from CSKA and 69-75 for Sassari, but CSKA always try to enternain their fans by reaching 100 points mark (if there is a chance) and this might be a factor in 2nd half too.
So my advice is to wait for lower handicap line and take over if line drops down to 160-162 points.
Karsyaka – Panathinaikos
I didn’t like what I’ve seen last week in PAO – Lokomotiv game. Seems that PAO needs to make big changes next summer to built top-quality team again. You can’t win big game with Feldeine, Raduljica playing just 15-18 mins per game and Kuzmic playing all other time.. Diamantidis too old, Calathes can’t find his place in this team too.. And serbian coach working with greek players.. So much strange things happens in PAO these days, that it’s better to stay away from them right now.
Karsiyaka looks much healthier team, but they don’t have experience of such games as this one, when you need to prove that you can win against better players as a team. Total market is hard to predict here for me, but my system says that there under is better, than over… So maybe in play we should look for under opportunity.