October 28 games preview

Sonny WeemsTonight is the last of 4 days Euroleague marathon with 4 games schedules in Kaunas, Barcelona, Istanbul and Athens. 

Barcelona – Brose Baskets

Ribas joined the long list of absences of Barca in Belgrade (achilles). Navarro, Ribas and Lawal are ruled out, Koponen and Doellman are doubtful. Barcelona absolutely must win this game after failing in last two games. Defense is the only thing that works well at Barcelona right now and I expect them to defend very hard tonight against german champs. Brose had two overs at home, where they showed spectacular shooting percentage, but away from home their offensive quality should not be as high as it was at home against Unics and Pananthinaikos.

I see very slow paced game with 132-136 attacks. Barcelona on average has just 1.024 pts/attack and against Fenerbahce Brose played their “normal” game with 0.985 pts/attack. My total range here 136-148 points.

Pick: Under 148.5 @ 1.92 Pinnacle

Galatasaray – Fenerbahce

B.Bogdanovic got serious injury against Zalgiris and will miss this game. Seems that market reacts to this news and public money goes on Galatasaray. Maybe mathematical value is on hosts, but Fenerbahce is playing collectively and can compensate their offensive leader miss with their defense and other players potentials. There is no value guests at this price, but I expect Fenerbahce to continue their winning series.

Panathinaikos – Crvena Zvezda

Agree with line here. PAO is homecourt favorite + they have more class. But as we saw in Bamberg their game is still shaky and X.Pasqual needs to time to balance it. Not sure about PAO ability to cover such spreads against such dangerous opponents as Crvena Zvezda. On other side CZ got second victory on Wednesday and I am not sure about their motivation in Athens.

Over could be a good option at in-play, but at the moment there is not much value to take it. Mainly because of weak CZ offense and their defensive attitude.

Paid subscription pick

  • Maccabi – Zalgiris
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