Euroleague. October 29 Picks

satoranskyToday we have another 6 games. Below you can find my thoughts on 2 games in Turkey and Spain. 

Efes Pilsen – Cedevita

Cedevita without Zoric (injury) and Zubcic (contract terminated by mutual agreement). This makes Cedevita roster very short and very young. Their defense is very weak and I can’t imagine how they can stop D.Ivkovic team, which is full of euroleague-level players. Deeibler, Saric, Tyus, D.Brown, B.Dunston, T.Heurtel, C.Osman, J.Granger – very experienced core of the team, which is strong on both sides of the floor. 

Cedevita is short-handed and coach must send his youngsters (16,18 and 19 y.o.) to fight.. But the reason why young talents fails in mens basketball – is their physical level. They can’t defend and penetrate the basket against bigger boddies. On top of that Cedevita lacks defensive players. M.Bilan is offensive center with weak defense. James is another bad defender.. 

Efes should get here ~85 possessions and with their ability to score 1,00+ pts/possesion against normal defenses, they should be able to score up to 90 against injury-troubled Cedevita roster.

I expect something like 89:65 here, so Efes -16 is another lean here. Choose what you like or can bet. 

Pick: Efes over 85 @ 1.90 Pinnacle

Barcelona – Panathinaikos

There is huge class difference here between Barcelona and Pao tonight. Mainly because Pappas and Jankovic out for greeks (O.Kuzmic doubtful too), and Barcelona is with full roster available. PAO is still a new team, which needs time to grew up and get form. Feldeine scores only 40% of his shots, Calathes looks badly too, Raduljica gets 4 fouls in 15 mins each game and O.Kuzmic (backup center) is not fully ready. Ok, there is Gist, Diamantidis and Fotsis, but is that enought to get something when you in Barcelona? 

Just take a look at Barcelona roster. Oleson, Abrines and Perperoglou are their 9, 10 and 11 man in the roster! They have 12 players to choose from and over the distance of match it’s not a problem for coach to find best matchup and players, who will win the game. 

Barcelona has advantage on the bench and their players quality is much higher these days. I can’t find a reason, why PAO is so close in the bookmaker ratings to Barcelona. Fair spread here is about -10.5 points. 

Pick: Barcelona (-6.5) @ 1.90 Bet365

Paid subscription

  • CSKA – Brose
  • Karsiyaka – Zalgiris
  • Limoges – Laboral
  • Maccabi – Sassari

 

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