Darussafaka – Anadolu Efes
At the moment Darussafaka looks better on the field than their opponents. Not a surprise, because David Blatt had plenty of time to construct game. But what about level of their competitors? Crvena Zvezda is far from playoff contender status, Unics has plenty of problems at the start of the season and Milan (the only playoff contender) won against them quite comfortably.
Efes had difficult schedule at the start of Euroleague campaign. Baskonia and Olympiacos away + CSKA at home.. Not many teams can finish with at least 1 victory.. I suppose Efes coach was thinking about this game well before their game with CSKA. But their problem is questionable form of key players. Heurtel, Granger, Omic, Thomas are playing well below expectations. They must improve their performance to find winning path in Euroleague.
I expect Efes to improve on the distance and this game might be their first step to success. Darussafaka play at its own hall, but both teams are from the same town, so the home factor is reduced here. I don’t see much value here, my lean is on Efes, but value is too low to take it.
Lean: Efes +3.5
Milan – Real Madrid
Italian champions roster has quality to fight with Real Madrid on paper. Hickman and Kalnietis against Lull and Draper. Gentile and Dragic against Doncic and Carroll. Under the rims both teams have boddies (Macvan, McLean, Raduljica – Randolph, Hunter, Ayon). This one should be an interesting battle. The problem is Milan non-existing defense. You can’t win against Real playing in offense only. Real after unexpected loss to Baskonia might be more concentrated on the result, but value is on the hosts here.
As for over/under my system expects here 165-179 points and 177 looks few points higher than it should be. But additional factors as possible high pace, weak Milan defense and 3-0 for overs doesn’t give us an opportunity to take as official one.
Lean: Milan +6 and Under 177