Olympiacos – Real Madrid

OlympiacosIt’s absolutely clear that Euroleague fans will look tonight for this huge battle in Greece. But is there any sense to back Olympiacos at such odds? Olympiacos is extremely motivated for a win here. After yesterday Brose win over CSKA, greeks will be eliminated with a loss. I think that whole Greece will be with Olympiacos today and I hardly see them losing to Real in such exciting atmosphere. Sfairopolous still can’t use M.Lojeski, but team is already used to his absence. Greek team will look for opportunity to win by 12+ points margin to get h2h against Madrid, but the most important thing at the moment is to get victory. In case they get same amount of wins as Barcelona and Real, they need to win at least by 11 points to get advantage over Real Madrid in case of 3-way tie.

Real comes to Greece in full roster, but Maciulis was limited during training, also Fernandez and Reyes are touched by small injuries. But seems that P.Lasso will have full roster. Real minimum goal is to hold +12 from first game and try to steal a win to have an easy life in last 2 rounds.

Real is individually better and deeper team than Olympiacos and “normal” win line should be around 1.90-1.90. But here we have extra-motivation for Olympiacos + greeks are not comfortable opponent for Real Madrid + guests are ok with 12 points loss. I think that bookies did correction, when moved Olympiacos handicap to -2.5, but maybe that’s not enough… Anyway, it’s hard to find value in such line. Real is very experienced team and if they will find their offense tonight (or referees will not allow Oly to defend hard) than I see 50/50 game here.

As for the total I see some value on under, but it is too low to take with full stake, I think it’s better to wait for in-play chance to take Olympiacos victory with odds over 2.00.

As for the total my line here is 153.5 and there is no value to take pre-match under, which is currently set at 156 points. I would recommend to wait for opportunity to take under 164+ at in play. 

My prediction is Olympiacos to win by 3-7 points, but I don’t like the idea to take them with (-3.5 handicap), because Real is not going to give away this match easy.

Prediction: Olympiacos 79 – 73 Real Madrid

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