The chance that overall points difference will be a deciding factor (difference in mutual games goes first) is very small, but small details matters when you are in such situation. After Real loss in Barcelona everyone in Greece knows that Olympiacos will have deciding game next week, but if they lose today they officialy can say goodbye to Euroleague. And there is no doubt, that Zalgiris will lose this game and Oly will win. The only question is difference.
Bookies have set -15, despite the normal one here is -13.5. They know that Olympiacos will seek for revenge and big margin, but is there is any sense to back “-15”? I think that it would be wrond decision, because there is absolutely no value to take such spread and on top of this – they key game for Oly is next week game vs. Real (where difference really matters). Sure they will try to take sweet revenge, but -15.. too high handicap for me to take.
As for the total I think that it’s better to go Oly over 83 points @ 1.92 at Pinnacle rather than over 148.5. I am not sure about Zalgiris ability to score points against aggressive Olympiacos defense, but numbers say that we can expect 65-71 from guests and 82-86 from hosts. Still a lot of room for under and I have no desire to go against Olympiacos home under trend at home (7-2 for Under). And also the pace is against us here if we decide to take over.