Euroleague Round 5 (November 2-3). Betting Tips and Games Preview

Kaleb Tarczewski

After 4 Euroleague rounds we are doing quite well with 7-1 in paid subscription, with only loss coming from Baskonia game against Valencia. This week we have more games on Thursday (5) and first system selection choices are ready to test.

Before we start with system selections I want to warn you to avoid high-stake with system bets, because they are oriented to give profit on long distance. We are going to game with high under  chances and spreads (on strong underdogs and against weak favorites).

CSKA – Zalgiris

Efes – Unicaja

Unicaja has well established system from last season, when they won Eurocup. J.Plaza told the press about his vision of the game this season.

“With the selection of pivots we have, we want to take advantage of our inner game. It depends on the defense also if you manage to do it . With Augustine, Dejan or Shermadini we sometimes have 2×1 with the low post. We want to achieve that balance between 60% shots of two and 40% shots of three, we want that ideal. Hopefully we are getting closer. There are automatisms that are assimilating, we want to take out the pivots of more game, of the big ones “.

Efes started Euroleague with 4 losses, but 3 of them were against big teams. This game is the first, where Efes goes as favorite, but with 1-3 ATS record (and 0-2 at home) my system indicated them as weak favorite. They had too much changes in offseason and yet to find team game to start winning in Euroleague. Unicaja knows the way to the victories, now when Nedovic and Augustine are back to the roster we can expect another upset for Efes.

Pick: Unicaja +4.5 @ 1.92 5/10

Barcelona – Olympiacos

Maccabi – Milan

Maccabi failed to cover spread in both home games this season. Italians played two solid games in Moscow and Madrid and will play against their size opponent. I think it’s good chance for them to fight for the points. A.Goudelock should be back after missing two games (officialy he is game decision).
Also Maccabi is 2-0 for Under in home games and play slow pace. Milan normally should accept that pace and I see some value in under here. Value is not big enough to take it with full stakes, but it’s ok for system bet.
Pick: Milan +5 @ 1.92 5/10 
Pick: Under 162 @ 1.91 5/10

Baskonia – Panathinaikos

After Pablo Prigioni stepped down as head coach, the club announced that Pedro Martinez will lead team until the end of the season. Martinez arrives from Valencia Basket, which with he won the Spanish League last season. With him on the bench they lost at home to Zaragoza, but it’s impossible to change things in 2 or 3 days. Bad form is main reason, why we see Baskonia as home underdog against Panathinaikos. And this is statisticaly is very good situation for Baskonia, because basques are 7-1 ATS in last 2 seasons as home underdog.

Panathinaikos started with 2 ATS losses and it indicates that they are weak away favorite. I go with Baskonia +1 as system selection, because I did not like they way, how PAO playing at the start of the season and Baskonia has enough talent to explode to get first home victory in Euroleague.

Pick: Baskonia +1 @ 1.91 5/10

Fenerbahce – Valencia

San Emeterio is fit to play tonight and Valencia will try to continue their 3-1 ATS record (2-0 on the road) in Istanbul.

Fenerbahce so far has difficulties with spreads (1-3 ATS) and we might continue going against them, while they are struggling to show basketball from last season. Valencia has well established playing system, all players know their roles and now, when their bench looks healthy again, I expect them to give a fight to Euroleague champs.

I also like under here, but with lower stakes. Game pace should be very slow (about 130 attacks). In Euroleague Fenerbahce so far had 1.06, 1.05, 1.28 and 1.03 pts/attack, and Valencia had 0.99, 1.06, 1.10 and 1.13. There is a risk of high percentage game (both teams has great offensive potential), but we have supporting trend here, because Valencia is 2-0 for Under on the road this season.

Pick: Valencia +6.5 @ 1.93 5/10
Pick: Under 152 @ 1.92 5/10

Real Madrid – Khimki

Both teams are playing uptempo style, but total set too high to bet on over. Spread is more or less good. It’s hard to predict Khimki performance at Madrid. They looked weak in Greece, but that was almost back-to-back game after 3-0 start at home. Now they had time to prepare, but Real is playing many years with this roster and should find a way to take another home victory.

Anthony Randolph could return after his dislocation in the right shoulder, but Laso warned that he would not run any “risks”. On other side, Facundo Campazzo and Luka Doncic have not trained until Wednesday, due to problems in the foot of the Argentine and a flu process of Slovenian.

Crvena Zvezda Beograd – Bamberg

CZ is logical favorite here, but I don’t want to take them as -5.5 favorite. Brose signed D.Wright, who had perfect game against Baskonia and might be a good long-term addition for germans.
As for the total I expect slow game, but total outcome will depend on shooting percentage, that might be very high looking to the past games.

Return tomorrow to read previews and picks for these games:

 

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