Paid picks & preview for February 2nd

Euroleague Logo 20171 of 2 picks were won yesterday in paid subscription. 

Unics – Olympiacos

The “reds” traveled Kazan without Vassilis Spanoulis (adductor problem), Matt Lojeski (gastroenteritis) and Patrick Young (knee injury). John Papapetros is doubt, but he joined the trip and might play.

Unics will be without important point guard J.Qolom, but A.Pankrashov (Russian NT point guard) was registered for a game. He missed several month after knee surgery.

Russian team is in bad moment of form. Langford is 17/55 FG in last four games and without his 20+ points Unics is not capable of winning games… Olympiacos has two important players out, but their game always based on team performance. They can overcomes all difficulties and use their defense to get a result. In Greece they destroyed Unics 88:59.

I don’t see any value in total or handicap here. Unics at home is playing much better than away. Total set correctly.

Fenerbahce – CSKA

CSKA will miss two important players in Istanbul. Milos Teodosic and Viktor Khriapa left in Moscow and will not play today. Coach Itoudis still may count on 9 main players + Antonov & Freeland. But they will surely miss Khriapa defensive presence and Milos points, assists and creativity.

Zeljko Obradovic will have full roster tonight (with Ekpe Udoh, who missed last games). His team is fighting for home court advantage and maybe something more, because they are just 2 wins away from top of the table. They definitely must win this game to get h2h advantage against CSKA and improve their standings.

CSKA is 1-6 ATS in last 7 away games and they lost 3 games in a row to Crvena Zvezda, Real and Zalgiris. Fenerbahce is very hot right now, they playing better basketball and I see them as home court favs here. After the news about Khriapa and Teodosic line moved from -1.5 to -3.5 and at the moment doesn’t represent value. We need to wait for 1.95+ odds on Fenerbahce at in-play to bet on them.

 

Brose – Maccabi

  • Home avg. pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.17 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 149 attacks (+)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.08 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 145 attack
  • Expected total range: 157-178 points

Trends

  • Brose 7-2 for OVER at home
  • Brose 6/9 for OVER 160.5 at home
  • Maccabi 3-1 for OVER in last 4 away games

Market reacts to Maccabi decision to terminate contract with S.Weems. But as for me without him they should become better team. Because Goudelock will get more possessions (as he should), Mekel and Ohayon will be back to PG position and there will be less situations when team will be watching what Weems is going to do the with the ball. Also his departure might have impact on their defense. He was a good big size defender and they will miss him.

Brose defense doesn’t work well in Europe, but offensively they are one of the best teams. They own best home offense in Euroleague with 1.09 pts/poss. and against weak Maccabi defense they have good chances to reach 90 points. Maccabi should score 71-78 if we look at their recent results, but if they will find balance in offense we can expect 80-85 points from them.

Pick: Over 160.5 @ 1.92 7/10 WON

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