Unics – Zalgiris
My line: (-1/157)
This is a must-win game for Zalgiris and team is very concerned about result in Kazan. They were looking very well in home against them, but collapsed in 4th quarter after getting double digit margin. Unics scored all shots in 4th quarter and won the game in Kaunas.
K.Langford is major doubt for Unics. He has not trained since last week and might get rest in not important game. At least being in such situaiton earlier coach did not risk him.
The bad point here is that normally Unics should get -3.5 line. They are getting -1 due the motivation factor and because bookies doesn’t want to see money flow on Zalgiris here. The good point is hot trend:
Unics 1-3 ATS in last 4 home games
Zalgiris 10-2 ATS in road games
There is no value on Zalgiris, but odds are good enough to take them as system bet.
Pick: Zalgiris +1 @ 1.92 4/10 WON
Darussafaka – Barcelona Regal
My line: (-4.5/146.5)
Diagne is out with back pain, but Navarro is back to the team for Bartzokas. Darussafaka seems to be with full roster. Game has huge importance for the hosts as they pursue 8th place and needs to collect victories to make pressure. Barcelona this season is very weak on the road and it’s hard to expect their victory in Turkey. But also there is value in accepting risks at such price as we see on Darrusafaka.
I expect slow-to-medium pace here (about 140 attacks) and that should lead to 140-154 points game according to my calculations. Not enough value to take under 151, but at in-play I would recommend to keep an eye on the pace and percentage in 1st half. 158+ total is ok for under bet.
Olympiacos – Galatasaray
My line: (-14.5/149.5)
I see this one as one-sided game. But bookies see it the same way 🙁
Spanoulis and Waters are questionable for the hosts, Schilb and Preldzis are long-time absenses for Galatasaray. In last games Olympiacos looks much better in offense than in first half of the season. Against weak Galatasaray defense I expect them to score 82-86 points. Turks normally should fail against defensive pressure from Oly and score under 70 points. But not sure if Oly will play 40 minutes defense..
Baskonia – CSKA Moscow
My line: (+5/159)
- Home avg. pace: 147 attacks (+3)
- Home avg. scoring: 0,99-1,12 pts/attack
- Away average pace: 152 attacks (+)
- Away avg. scoring: 1.03-1,12 pts/attack
- Expected pace: 153 attacks
- Expected total: 155-171 points
- Baskonia 7-3 UNDER at home (Last 10 games)
- CSKA 7-3 UNDER on the road (Last 10 games)
While everyone expects high-scoring basketball, statistics show that is had good chances for under. Baskonia games is based on speed and defense. CSKA gives much attention to their defense too, especially in last months. Game is equally important for both clubs, because CSKA is fighting for 1st place (to avoid uncomfortable Olympiacos in semis) and Baskonia yet to confirm its place in quarterfinals.
The main risk is high pace, which both teams likes to play. If percentage will be higher than normal (Euroleague average is 1.09 pts/attack) game will go to 165+ range, but still with good chances not to reach 170. Opening line was 163.5, but has moved to 169.. My system saying that bookmakers were right in their estimations and I go against the public here.
As for the outcome CSKA is better team, but odds are too low to take them (they are 2-7 ATS in last 9 road games)/
Pick: Under 169 @ 1.92 7/10 WON