Paid picks & previews from February 9th

Euroleague Logo 2017Panathinaikos – Brose Baskets
My line: (-6,5/142,5)
  • Home avg. pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.02 pts/attack
  • Away average pace: 142 attacks (-)
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.062 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 135-138 attacks
Trends:
  • Panathinaikos 7-3 for Under 153
  • Brose 4-2 for Under 153
  • Panathinaikos is 7/10 for Under 153 at home
Brose 2 wins away from playoffs and should be very motivated in Athens, where they always playing close games with PAO (73:76, 66:71 and 61:66). Both teams are VERY SLOW and that should result to slow basketball with long posessions and a lot of defense from both sides. With X.Pasqual Panathinaikos improved their defense and now they owns 2nd best home defense in Euroleague with just 0.85 pts/possession allowed.
I expect to see very slow match, as it was in Bamberg when teams did just 131 attacks but scored 167 points. Today game scoring efficiency should be lower (0.98-1.12 pts/attack expected) and for 135-138 attacks game that should result in 131-154 scored points. But there are some weak points too:
Brose is just 5/11 for Under 153 in away games
Pick: Under 153,5 @ 1.92 5/10 WON
Unics – Real Madrid 
My line: (+8,5/157,5)
A lot of news came from Kazan this week. O.Johnson left team because his contract has expired. J.Colom played his first game after missing basketball action for 1.5 month. K.Kaimakoglou broke finger and will not play for one month. Pankrashov is close to playing his first minutes. There are rumours that after loss to Real Madrid E.Pashutin might be fired.
Real travels without R.Fernandez and Thompkins questionable (virus infection).
There is no replacements for Johnson and Kaimakouglu. Euroleague season is over for Unics and it will be very hard to take something tonight. Real deserves -7 handicap here, but they are not playing like a team, which can cover such spread with closed eyes.
I recommend to wait for better odds on Real Madrid at in-play.
Efes – Milano
My line: (-7/170)
Both teams are doing well in last games. Milano may try to return to playoff race, because in case of win they will have h2h advantage over Darussafaka (currently 9th) and Efes (8th). Chances are more theoritical, but I have always said that this team has enough talent to win against any team in Euroleague, but they don’t have system. Efes is the same quality team, but they learned to play Perasovic basketball and is better trained team.
Milano won 105-92 at home being 3 points favs. So healthy line in Turkey should be about 5-7 points. We are getting -9 just because Efes is 5-1 ATS in last 6 home games. But Milan is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games too and won 3 of last 4 games.
Milano +9 is good choice, but you know how bad this team can be…
CSKA – Crvena Zvezda
My line: (-19/160)
CSKA will have M.Teodosic and V.Khriapa today. Crvena Zvezda without important Jovic and less important Dangubic.
Seems that golden time of Crvena Zvezda is over. Their hot form start to disappear. CSKA is also unpredictable now. They can’t find their rhytm and confidence. Maybe with return of Teodosic they will be back to their best version, but Milos is not 100% healthy and I expect him to play limited minutes.
I see easy win for CSKA, which is going to take revenge for away loss in Belgrade. But there is no reason to jump on CSKA -17.. Total line is set more or less fair.
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