Euroleague Playoffs. Game 1. Predictions And Pick

Nando De Colo against Monia

Power Rating

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CSKA Moscow

CSKA – Khimki

Pick:

Khimki +12,5 @ 1.90

BC Khimki
  • CSKA 2-6 ATS at home in last 8 games
  • Khimki 6-1-1 on the road in last 8 games

CSKA will miss K.Hines in this series. Khimki has A.Gill questionable for Game 1 and Honeycutt is out. Other players are healthy and ready to play.

The only chance for Khimki to compete against CSKA is to defend well and force slow pace and half court game. The problem is with defensive minded players. Bartzokas should risk and let bench players to have more minutes. Zaitsev, Vyaltsev, Monia – good defenders, but poor offensive players. But without defensive unit they has no chance in this game. Let’s see what tactics Bartzokas will choose and of course if they will be to make it on the court.

As for the total game is difficult to predict, because numbers don’t give us enough value to take something.

  • Home avg. scoring: 1.13-1.22 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.17 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 143 attacks
  • Expected total range: 158-171 points

My general advice is too stay away from high stakes here. I go with system selection here and take strong underdog (Khimki) against weak favorite (CSKA). But keep stakes low, because a lot will depend of A.Gill ability to give quality minutes.

Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos – Real Madrid

Pick:

Real Madrid +2 @ 1.92

Real Madrid
 

From the total point of view line is very tricky to bet on. There is no value to bet on total:

  • Home avg. scoring: 1.13-1.22 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.17 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 147 attacks
  • Expected total range: 158-169 points

But I will try Real Madrid due the several reason. The first and most important one – I think that Real is hidden favorite to win Euroleague. The have very deep and quality roster. They have Doncic, Randolph and huge choice of 2nd unit players with top quality (Ayon, Caroll, Fernandez, Tavares). Panathinaikos is good quality team too, but their quality is ok to play within the same quality teams (Baskonia, Olympiacos, Zalgiris and so on). They lost both games against CSKA this season and Real Madrid trashed them at home 95:72 and was very close to winning the game in Athens.

Also hot trends indicates that PAO fails to cover expectaction at home. They are just 2-4 ATS in last 6 home and both ATS win came against unmotivated teams (Valencia, Crvena Zvezda). Real is 4-0 ATS as road underdog this season and 10-5 ATS overall away from home. But the main reason to jump on Madrid is their quality. As for me Real with full roster and with 100% motivation should be a favorite in Athens.

I expect Real to win at least one game in Athens. Let’s go with handicap tonight.

 

Fenerbahce Dogus

Fenerbahce – Baskonia

Preview on gameday

Baskonia
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.08-1.16 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.08-1.15 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 140 attacks
  • Expected total range: 152-161 points

Total line looks to be fair in this game and it’s better to avoid betting on total here, because everything will depend on shooting percentage +-5% can decide the outcome of the bet.

As for outcome Baskonia looks really strong this season as road underdog. They are 11-1 ATS in last 12 road games and 9-3 ATS as away underdog. Fenerbahce on other side looks to be overpriced whole season as Euroleague champion. At home they are just 5-10 ATS (3-1-6 in last 10 games). So normally Baskonia +6.5 seems to be a good system bet, but this time we are not going to bet on away handicap. The reason is quite simple – we should have at least 1 point value to take it. And I can’t see it, because Baskonia will miss Granger in first 2 games of the series. He is important player, that gives quality at PG position, where Huertas and Vildoza has difficulties.

Fenerbahce is experienced and well balanced team, that knows how to play in playoffs. There is no reason to take Fenerbahce at these odds, but also there are no reasons to go against them.

Olympiacos

Olympiacos – Zalgiris

Preview on gameday

BC Zalgiris
  • Home avg. scoring: 1.05-1.11 pts/attack
  • Away avg. scoring: 1.04-1.15 pts/attack
  • Expected pace: 143 attacks
  • Expected total range: 149-162 points

Zalgiris is one of the best road teams in Euroleague (11-4 ATS), but they are totally unexperienced on this level. Everything might happen with them, because Olympiacos is very experienced team and they know how to play best game, when it is needed. From system point of view Zalgiris is the only logical choice, because greeks fails to cover spread in last games (1-4 ATS), but in those games they did not have motivation.

There were many rumors about injuries in Olympiacos, but seems that was dirty games. Yesterday whole squad was training normally and they will have huge choice of players and tactical solutions.

I don’t see good bets here for us. Zalgiris odds are shortened due their records, but Olympiacos has longer bench and experience. I would not be surprised if Oly wins Game 1 with double digits and will send message to Europe, that they are back again.

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