Euroleague. Top-16. Real Madrid – Maccabi

rudy attacksReal Madrid welcomes the team, which won against them in Euroleague Final.. Everyone wants revenge, but what about 2 losses to Panathinaikos and Murcia? Let’s go deep in this and decide with a bet.

Maccabi will welcome Sofoklis Schortsanitis back to the fold after he missed the game against Jerusalem, but Sylven Landesberg is still out injured, with a sick Brian Randle requiring an IV to take part in the defeat to Hapoel. Further complicating matters is the fact that an already fatigued Yogev Ohayon was on court for 39 minutes, with Devin Smith looking exhausted after scoring 31 points in 29 minutes. Maccabi’s roster had three days to rest and prepare for the showdown with Real, but that may well prove to be not enough considering its current state. (source Jpost.com).

As for Real the best quote I found describing their attitude – was Rudy words. He said: “We must show our best version. It’s an important game. We are fortunate to play with our audience and we will enjoy it and try to win for sure one of the top two places. There are always eager to play against Maccabi. We will fight against one of the best in Europe. And above all, with our people, to fill the field. “

There will be huge atmosphere in Madrid today, with almost all tickets already sold and no doubts about Real motivation tonight. They will seek to revenge for loss in Tel Aviv this season and they will never forget last year Euroleague final, when they lost control over the game and let Maccabi take the crown in overtime.

My system says that Real has good chances to score around 93-95 points tonight, while Maccabi will score in 70-79 with more chances to finish in 70-76. And normally we should get here 18.5 spread.

But there also 2 problems with this bet.

  • Real is on 5-1-0 ATS spread run at home. Maccabi is 0-6 in last 6 games and 0-3 in away games. So my another system tells that there is a good chance for both runs to stop.
  • Real lost its last games to PAO and Murcia by scoring 69 and 79 points… And if they continue playing like there – system could be right in predicting outcome.

So we must be very careful with stakes here, because we gamble with Real Madrid form. They were looking very good 2 weeks ago, but last week was bad for them. But this time they play at home and there were many situations in last 3 season, when they showed super-quality games after bad games. Let’s see how it will be today.

I am sure that we go the value here, but there are some risks too. Be careful..

Pick: Real Madrid (-12) @ 1.99 Pinnacle

R.Fernandez over 13.5 @ 1.85 Sportingbet

We played this bet several time this and last season. Let’s do it again. Big game, big pressure and many things to prove on court. Rudy likes this game and his form is nice today. He scored at least 2-3 3-pointers in last games and it should not a problem for him to score 8-10 points from 2-points shots and FT. Expect 15+ pts game from him.

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