Round 2 (October 19-20) Tips and Betting Previews

Erick Green

New Euroleague season started good for us with a double winner last week.

At the moment it’s very hard to trust numbers and make own line estimation and I don’t think that there will be a lot of picks in 2 round. But at least we have very interesting games, which are going to answer many interesting questions:

  • First home game for restructured Maccabi. Are they already good enough to win over big teams?
  • Will Panathinaikos recover after hard loss in Barcelona?
  • Can Milan hold handicap against Euroleague champs?
  • Who is better at the moment Real Madrid or CSKA?
  • Real test awaits both teams, who meet in Belgrade. Who will survive?

To know my opinion about all games return to this page on gameday at 14:00 CET.

Date Match Prediction Pick Odds Units Bookie Result Profit
19/10/2017 Maccabi – Baskonia  82 – 74
Patricio Garino and Jordan McRae are still not available for Baskonia, while Rodrigue Beaubois has traveled to Israel despite his knee problems. Huertas, Granger and Janning are the only healthy guards, who can be used by Pablo Prigioni. C.Delfino has temporary contract and in bad form. Rodrigue Beaubois recovering from injury and needs time to find his game.

Maccabi normally is nothing special by names. But as I said in my season preview N.Spahija is a key factor here. He is experienced coach and knows how to build system. They were 55:59 before start of 4th quarter in Bamberg but started the quarter with 19:0 run and closed out the game 88:71. Pierre Jackson scored 27 points, dished 9 asssists and got 7 rebounds. Let’s see if he is able to continue in this manner. Last season he was seen in 2 games of Eurocup, where he scored 29 and 38 points for Cedevita.

So far Maccabi tends to show good game on both ends of the floor. They have 2 defensive victories in own league (82:68 and 80:61) and one in Euroleague. At the moment I don’t see much difference between teams quality, so -4.5 handicap looks correct. But seems that Maccabi game is more balanced and they should be able to get advantage from that, especially playing in front of own spectators.

My advice to take Maccabi @ 1.95 in case of slow start. As for the total I expect fast game, but 164.5 line has no value for over bet.

19/10/2017 Panathinaikos – Brose Bamberg N/A
Search for their own identity is currently the biggest problem of Brose team. Maodo Lo is currently the only reliable shooter, while the new additions Ricky Hickman and Daniel Hackett have little danger from the triple line. Daniel Hackett not in best conditions right now. Elias Harris once again fails with a knee injury indefinitely, and that for Trinichieri to use limited 3-man rotation on PF and C positions. Augustine Rubit and Luka Mitrovic do as much as they can, but they are currently not yet at the EuroLeague level. Unpleasant situation around Quincy Miller still bothers team management. He is training with a team, but wants to leave the team.
PAO started badly in Barcelona with 27 points loss (71:98), but they had two different halves there. Seems that X.Pasqual still needs some time to find right rotations within his wide 12-man roster. Everyone is healthy and ready to play. The big problem of Panathinaikos is absence of top players. Lojeski, Singleton and Calathes are normally their go-to guys, but all of them are yet to find their game on court.
PAO should win this game quite easy, but I don’t see any reasons to jump on -10.5 handicap. But PAO to win @ 1.20 should be good combo material
19/10/2017 Milan – Fenerbahce N/A
At the start of the season Milan showing much improved game comparing to last season. They had double digit lead in Moscow, but wasted it in 2nd half, but I really liked the team play on both ends of the floor. Of course they don’t have killer instinct yet and can’t finish well at this level. But it’s visible seen how Piangiani changed the game.
Fenerbahce controlled the game against Unicaja for 3 quarters, but than collapsed. Nikola Kalinic and Ali Muhammed are questionable for the guests and without Z.Obradovic obviously missing important part of Euroleague champions system.
I expect slow pace here, but total line is too low to bet on under. Handicap looks fair to me. Fener has more quality, but seems that Milan can do an upset here, because they few steps ahead in terms of team play.
19/10/2017 Real Madrid – CSKA 89-78 Real (-2.5) 1.96 8  Pinnacle
Real started with good ATS road win over Efes and continued their winning run in Valencia (86:82). Now they welcomes CSKA at home, who destroyed them in their last meeting in Final-4 (70:94). Madrid has the core from last season and I see a progress there due L.Doncic factor, who is becoming a real power in Europe (27 points against Efes).

CSKA started with home ATS loss to Milan. They were 16 points down in first half (16-32), but then turned the thing and won in the end 93:84. I am sure that Milan was able to win that game, if they would be mentally ready to make it.

I think that key point here is mental aproach. Westermann, Clyburn (newcomers) don’t have that big club mentality and they are not used to play for a win on such courts as in Madrid. Rodriguez and Hunter are well known to Real, because they were playing here. It is a big question how they will respond today.

Real should dominate under the boards with their size under the boards. For me they are absolutely the same level team as CSKA and this moment in great form. They have more energy within their huge roster, huge crowd support and I really surprised to see such high odds on them.

20/10/2017 Khimki – Zalgiris  81 – 72

Preview available in paid subscription

20/10/2017 Valencia – Anadolu Efes 81 – 76
 Valencia comes without Ricky Ledo, but J.Doellman will play his first official game in Efes T-shirt. Txus Vidorreta still can’t count on San Emeterio, Diot and Williams. Also B.Dublievic will play with mask. Efes is good quality team, but still in rebuilding process. Still not enough games played to estimate their real level. Looking to the roster strength they can give a fight to Valencia, but it’s hard to go against the hosts.Both team can score with huge percentages, but Valencia prefer to play slow pace and it’s a reason, why I don’t want to try the over 155.5.
20/10/2017 Crvena Zvezda – Regal Barcelona
Preview available in paid subscription
20/10/2017 Olympiakos – Unicaja 68 – 75 Unicaja +6.5 1.96 5

Olympiacos experience huge problems with injuries. Kim Tillie is out for several months, Vassilis Spanoulis and Strelnieks seems to be out too. Mantzaris and Papanikolao did part of training but still questionable. Brian Roberts played his first official game last weekend.

Jeff Brooks power forward was hit by stomach virus and stayed in Malaga to try to recover in time for weekend game against Real Madrid. Plaza took his other 13 players ready for the “battle”. It looks like Augustine will be the one who helps Carlos Suarez in the position of “4”. Shermadini and Musli will exercise of «centers».

Unicaja tends to play slow basketball, if opponents forcing it with hard defense and long possessions in offense. Olympiacos is exactly the same team and no suprise that we have just 143 points line. At the moment there is not enough data to decide if it worth to take something.

I see quite close game, because Unicaja has well implemented system and Olympiacos system is weakened by key player absences. I feel that Unicaja is capable of providing a suprise here and take points in Greece.

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This article has 2 Comments

  1. Your new way of articles is OK, but sometimes messy as you had same text for round 2 and 3 at the beginning. Also, please show us your predictions for paid previews after matches are done.

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